Here are our AFL picks for Saturday 22 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1, priced at -109 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 25.5 team_totals_q1 (-109)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Adelaide Crows hosting the Greater Western Sydney Giants at Adelaide Oval is set to be a classic clash of contrasting styles. Adelaide, known for their attacking flair, has been averaging 24.8 shots at goal and 12.2 target goals in their last five home games. However, facing a defensively sound Giants outfit that has conceded an average of just 76.4 points in their last five away matches could prove challenging. The Giants' ability to restrict opposition scoring, coupled with Adelaide's slight dip in their points for average to 82.2 at home, suggests a tight tussle early on. With the line set at 25.5 for the Crows' team total in the first quarter, opting for the 'Under' seems like a wise move given the potential defensive battle that may unfold.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs at the hallowed MCG. The Demons have been setting the field on fire lately, especially at home, with an average of 94.6 points per game in their last five outings at the G. Led by a sharpshooting forward line that's been hitting the target with precision, averaging 31.4 shots at goal and 13.8 majors per game, they've been a scoring juggernaut. On the flip side, the Western Bulldogs have been a defensive wall on the road, conceding a stingy 70.8 points per game in their last five away matches. With an overall defensive record of 72.6 points against per game, they know how to tighten the screws when playing away from home. Considering these trends, the 'Under 25.5' bet on Melbourne's Q1 team total seems like a savvy play. With the Demons' scoring prowess and the Bulldogs' defensive resilience, a tight start could be on the cards.
Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs: Western Bulldogs 14.5 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The clash at the MCG between the Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs promises to be a cracking showdown. The Demons, riding high with an average 17.4 point margin in their last five games, have been a force to be reckoned with. However, the Bulldogs, despite a -5.4 average margin on the road, have shown defensive prowess, conceding just 70.8 points per game away. With the Dogs boasting a solid average of 51.8 inside 50s in their recent outings, they have the tools to challenge the Demons. The spread of +14.5 for the Bulldogs looks enticing given their ability to keep games tight. Expect a fierce battle where the Bulldogs could keep it closer than expected, making them a smart pick against the spread.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's break down why hitting the Over 32.5 on the West Coast Eagles' Team Totals in the first half is a juicy play this weekend. The Eagles, flying high at Optus Stadium, have been unleashing an offensive barrage lately. In their last five home games, they've been relentless, averaging a whopping 51.2 Inside50s and 23.2 Shotsatgoal. Their precision in front of the big sticks has seen them bagging an average of 11.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Hawthorn Hawks have been leaking points on the road, with an average of 73.4 points against in their last five away games. With the Eagles averaging 78.2 points in their recent home fixtures and the Hawks struggling defensively, expect West Coast to light up the scoreboard early and sail comfortably over that 32.5 line. Get on board for a cracking start to this clash at Optus Stadium!
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dissect this Sunday clash between the Sydney Swans and the North Melbourne Kangaroos at the SCG. The Swans, boasting an average of 17.8 target goals in their last five home games, have been firing on all cylinders offensively. However, facing the Kangaroos, who have tightened their defense on the road, allowing just 74.4 points against in their last five away games, could pose a challenge. With the Swans' points for averaging 117.8 at home and the Kangaroos conceding 95.2 points on average overall, this sets the stage for a thrilling defensive battle early on. The line of 23.5 in the Team Totals Q1 market for Sydney suggests a tight opening quarter where both teams may struggle to find easy scoring opportunities. Considering these trends, backing the Under could be a savvy play in this matchup. Get ready for a fierce contest right from the first bounce!
Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Adelaide Crows -6.5 spreads_q2 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Adelaide Crows are set to soar at the Adelaide Oval against the Greater Western Sydney Giants, making them a smart bet at -6.5. Over their last five home games, the Crows have been dominant, boasting an average margin of 15.4 and averaging 82.2 points for. Their ability to penetrate inside 50s (52.2 on average) and convert shots at goal (24.8 on average) highlights their offensive prowess. On the other side, the Giants have struggled on the road, with a shaky average margin of 7.8. Their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 76.4 points against. With the Crows' solid home form and the Giants' vulnerability away, backing Adelaide to cover the spread looks like a winning play for footy punters.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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