On Saturday 29 August 2026, Toronto FC play New York City FC in the MLS. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Toronto FC vs New York City FC: Both Teams To Score: No, priced at +142 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
As Toronto FC prepares to host New York City FC, the signs point toward a potential lack of goals from both sides. Toronto has struggled recently, managing just a single win in their last five home matches, while averaging a modest 1.8 goals but conceding 2.2 at home. Their xG stats tell a sobering tale as well, with no expected goals in their last five outings. On the flip side, NYCFC has shown a bit more offensive spark with an average of 1.2 goals on the road, but their last five encounters against Toronto have favored the visitors, boasting a 4-1 record. Given both teams’ inconsistency and the defensive prowess NYCFC displayed recently, the odds look favorable for a "No" on both teams to score. This match could very well see a tightly contested affair with limited chances, making the 2.42 price for this bet appealing.
Toronto FC vs New York City FC: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-588)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing As Toronto FC welcomes New York City FC, the stage is set for a match that might not see fireworks on the scoreboard. Toronto has struggled, averaging just 1.4 goals while their defense has allowed the same number. Their recent home form reflects a tough week, with only one win in their last five matches, and they’ve consistently found it hard to find the back of the net against NYCFC, losing four of the last five encounters. On the flip side, NYCFC, while displaying some attacking prowess with 1.8 goals per game recently, often finds themselves in tightly contested battles, as evidenced by their own recent form. Both teams trend toward lower expected goals (xG) in their matchups, hinting that a tightly fought game is on the horizon. With the stakes high and defenses likely to shine, betting on under 4.5 total goals feels like a savvy play.
Toronto FC vs New York City FC: New York City FC Draw No Bet (-102)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing As Toronto FC prepares to host New York City FC, the recent form and head-to-head history paint a compelling picture for bettors leaning toward NYCFC. Toronto has struggled at home, going just 1-3-1 in their last five matches, while NYCFC has shown resilience with a 2-1-2 record away from home. Notably, New York City has dominated this matchup recently, winning four of the last five encounters. With both teams averaging about 1.4 goals in their last outings, NYCFC's ability to convert chances and maintain a slightly higher expected goals (xG) average hints at their attacking edge. Moreover, Toronto’s defensive frailty has been exposed, allowing 2.2 goals at home recently. Given these trends, placing a Draw No Bet on NYCFC feels prudent; you’re backing a team that not only has the momentum but also knows how to win in this fixture.
Toronto FC vs New York City FC: New York City FC +1.5 Goal Handicap (-588)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing As Toronto FC welcomes New York City FC, recent trends point toward a solid play on NYCFC with a handicap of 1.5. The home side has struggled, posting just one win in their last five, while NYCFC has found form, going 2-1-2 in their last five outings. Toronto's inability to secure points at home (1-3-1 overall) compounds their issues, especially when facing a team that has dominated this matchup historically, winning four of the last five face-offs. NYCFC’s scoring prowess is evident—they're averaging 1.8 goals per game and have consistently outperformed Toronto in recent encounters. With the home side conceding an average of 2.2 goals at home lately, it's hard to see them containing NYCFC’s attacking threats. Given these dynamics, backing New York City FC to cover the 1.5 handicap feels like a smart move in this matchup.
Toronto FC vs New York City FC: New York City FC +0.5 Goal Handicap (-179)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing When Toronto FC hosts New York City FC, recent form heavily favors the visitors. Over their last five outings, NYCFC has shown a resilience that Toronto has struggled to match, boasting a 4-1-0 record against them historically. With Toronto's home performances averaging just 1.8 goals while conceding 2.2, they seem vulnerable defensively. Moreover, NYCFC's offensive pressure has been evident, averaging 13.2 shots and maintaining a consistent scoring average of 1.8. Their ability to create chances translates into a significant edge, especially when you consider that Toronto's expected goals (xG) at home have been alarmingly low. This matchup also highlights New York's strong away record and their recent upward trajectory, making a bet on NYCFC -0.5 appealing. With their current form and historical dominance over Toronto, you can sense the momentum firmly in their favor.
Toronto FC vs New York City FC: New York City FC +0 Goal Handicap (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing As Toronto FC prepares to host New York City FC, the recent head-to-head record strongly favors the visitors, who have won four of the last five encounters. Toronto's home form has been shaky, with just a 1-2-2 record in their last five matches at BMO Field, averaging only 1.8 goals per game while conceding 2.2 at home. NYCFC, on the other hand, is showing resilience with a solid away record of 2-1-2, scoring consistently and averaging 1.2 goals away. Moreover, while expected goals (xG) data may not paint a complete picture, NYCFC's attacking output has been more reliable, generating a higher number of shots and shots on target in recent games. With Toronto struggling to find their groove at home and NYCFC's historical dominance, backing New York City FC to at least draw seems like a prudent move.
That is how our model reads Toronto FC v New York City FC. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.