On Monday 31 August 2026, Dallas Wings play Connecticut Sun in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Connecticut Sun +12 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Connecticut Sun +12 on the Line (+110)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
For the Connecticut Sun to cover the point spread against the Dallas Wings, they need to keep up their scoring and control the boards. The Sun have had some struggles lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, but they allow fewer rebounds and threes than the Wings do. Since 2019, the Wings let opponents take a lot of threes and grab a decent amount of rebounds, which could help the Sun. The most concrete risk is that the matchup is pretty close, with our numbers showing a possible margin of about 8.5 points. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Over 165.5 Total Points (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
The Dallas Wings have won five of their last ten games, showing some solid scoring lately. They tend to allow a decent number of three-point attempts, which can lead to higher scoring games. On the other hand, the Connecticut Sun have struggled, winning only three of their last ten. However, they also give up a fair amount of rebounds, which can lead to extra opportunities for the Wings. With both teams having a close battle for points, betting on over 165.5 total points seems like a good call. The expected combined total is about 168.1, which adds a bit of excitement. Just remember, the Sun's recent form might hold them back a little, so it could be a tight race to the finish. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Awak Kuier Under 8.5 Points (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Awak Kuier is facing a tough matchup against the Connecticut Sun, who have been solid on defense lately. The Sun usually allow fewer three-point shots than the league average, and they've been good at grabbing rebounds too. With both teams struggling to find their rhythm lately, this game could become a defensive battle. Betting on Kuier to score under 8.5 points seems smart here. While she has potential, the Sun's defense could limit her chances. Plus, the Wings have only won 5 of their last 10 games, which shows they're not firing on all cylinders right now. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The odds for Paige Bueckers to score under 21.5 points look solid. The Dallas Wings have let opponents shoot a lot of threes, but they also keep rebounds in check better than most teams, which can limit extra scoring chances. Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun have struggled recently, winning only 3 of their last 10 games, and that might affect their overall scoring flow. Bueckers has been facing some tough defenses, and with the Sun allowing fewer rebounds than many other teams, it could be tough for her to get those extra points. The biggest risk here is that Bueckers can always surprise us with a big game when she gets hot. But overall, it seems like a good spot for her to stay under that points mark. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Jessica Shepard Under 20.5 Points and Assists (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Jessica Shepard has been a key player for the Dallas Wings, but her recent scoring and assist numbers suggest she may struggle in this game. The Wings have allowed opponents to take a lot of three-point shots, which often leads to fewer assists and points for their players. Plus, the Connecticut Sun have not been in great form, winning only 3 out of their last 10 games, which might mean they won't keep the pace high. Shepard's performance could be affected by how well her team rebounds, as they give up a fair number of boards. With a rating that sees her points and assists under 20.5, this bet feels like a solid choice. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Dallas Wings v Connecticut Sun. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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