On Saturday 24 October 2026, Chelsea play Tottenham Hotspur in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 5.5 Total Cards, priced at -115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
When Chelsea hosts Tottenham, it's easy to expect fireworks given their fierce rivalry, but recent trends suggest a more subdued affair. Chelsea's home form has seen them average just 2.8 goals per game, while their opponents only manage a paltry 0.8 goals on the road. This low scoring trend is mirrored in Tottenham's struggles, as they've not found the net frequently, with just one goal in their last five away matches. Moreover, both teams have a history of disciplined encounters, evidenced by Chelsea's five wins in their last five matchups against Spurs without excessive cards. The stats lean towards a tactical battle rather than a card fest, making the under 5.5 cards a compelling pick. With Chelsea averaging only 8.6 fouls at home and Spurs not far behind at 14.6, the likelihood of exceeding this card line feels slim.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: Chelsea -0.25 Goal Handicap (-175)
Odds correct at time of publishing
The Blues have dominated this matchup, winning their last five encounters against Spurs, showcasing a psychological advantage that shouldn't be overlooked. Chelsea's home scoring average has been impressive at 2.8 goals per game, while Tottenham has struggled on the road, averaging just 0.8 goals in their last five away matches. Moreover, Chelsea's Expected Goals (xG) metrics reflect their attacking prowess, generating solid chances, while Spurs have been lackluster, often failing to convert their opportunities. With a home record of 3-1-1 in their last five at Stamford Bridge, and a defense that has conceded only 2 goals at home during this stretch, backing Chelsea at -0.25 seems like a worthwhile investment. Expect the Blues to assert their dominance once again in this fierce rivalry.
That is how our model reads Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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