Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 1 October 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Andrey Rublev to win the match, priced at -137 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Andrey Rublev: Andrey Rublev to win the match (-137)

Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing

Tallon Griekspoor faces Andrey Rublev at China Open on Thursday 1 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Andrey Rublev wins the match. It was priced at -137 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Rublev's recent form showcases an impressive 80% win rate over his last five matches, coupled with a robust first-serve percentage of 65.3% and a first-point win rate of 80.5%. His second-serve points won stand at 55.4%, which is competitive given Griekspoor's lower second-serve points won rate of 48.9%. In pressure situations, Rublev's break point save percentage of 58.7% is notably higher than Griekspoor's weak 22.5%. Moreover, Rublev's lower double fault rate (2.6%) compared to Griekspoor’s (3.3%) further solidifies his reliability on serve. Given these metrics, Rublev is well-positioned to exploit Griekspoor’s vulnerabilities and secure a victory on this hard surface.

Clara Tauson vs Polina Kudermetova: Clara Tauson to win the match (-196)

Odds available at Pinnacle at time of publishing

Clara Tauson faces Polina Kudermetova at China Open on Friday 2 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Clara Tauson wins the match. It was priced at -196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.10 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Tauson’s recent form is solid, boasting a win rate of 60% over her last five matches, while Kudermetova sits at 50%. In terms of serve performance, Tauson excels in pressure situations, facing a Kudermetova who has allowed opponents to win 58.75% of their serve points, indicating vulnerability. Additionally, Kudermetova struggles under pressure, with a 40% break point save rate, compared to Tauson’s likely stronger performance in similar situations. Kudermetova’s overall serve metrics (such as her 15% ace rate) suggest she may be less effective on hard courts. With these indicators combined, Tauson emerges as the value side, capitalizing on the opponent's weaknesses while showcasing superior recent form.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article