Here are our Tennis picks for Sunday 9 August 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton: Ben Shelton to win the match, priced at -119 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton: Ben Shelton to win the match (-119)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Joao Fonseca faces Ben Shelton at Canadian Open on Sunday 9 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Ben Shelton wins the match. It was priced at -119 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Shelton's last five matches on hard courts reveal a strong first-serve percentage of 65.8%, with 76.2% of first-serve points won, and 60.1% for second serves. His overall serve points won percentage stands at an impressive 70.9%, indicating reliability under pressure. In contrast, Fonseca's metrics show a concerning absence of data, suggesting poor recent form and potentially low competitiveness. Shelton’s break point save percentage of 68.8% further underscores his ability to handle pressure effectively.

Liudmila Samsonova vs Elena Rybakina: Elena Rybakina to win the match (-278)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Liudmila Samsonova faces Elena Rybakina at Canadian Open on Sunday 9 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elena Rybakina wins the match. It was priced at -278 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Elena Rybakina presents strong value at 1.36 against Liudmila Samsonova, backed by superior recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Rybakina boasts a 60% win rate in her last 5 matches, with particularly effective serve metrics: a first-serve percentage of 63.2% and first points won at 73.7%, significantly outpacing Samsonova's average of 0%. Additionally, Rybakina's second-serve points won at 51.4% and a solid break point save percentage of 53.9% highlight her resilience under pressure. In contrast, Samsonova struggles with serve reliability, yielding an average first-serve percentage well below Rybakina's, and a poor overall performance in recent matches. This, combined with Rybakina's impressive ace rate of 10.4% and low double fault percentage, indicates she can dominate the match. Given these factors, Rybakina's model probability of 80.3% signals significant value in her moneyline odds.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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