Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 7 August 2026. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca: Joao Fonseca to win the match, priced at -135 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca: Joao Fonseca to win the match (-135)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Casper Ruud faces Joao Fonseca at Canadian Open on Friday 7 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Joao Fonseca wins the match. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Joao Fonseca presents significant value at 1.74 against Casper Ruud due to superior recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Fonseca's last five matches reflect a solid 68% overall serve points won, with a strong first-serve percentage of 69.7% and a first-point win rate of 72.5%. His ability to save break points (55%) further indicates resilience under pressure. In contrast, Ruud's recent hard-court performance has been lackluster, with a mere 40% win rate and no data on serve metrics, suggesting potential vulnerability. Fonseca's higher average ace rate (8.79%) compared to Ruud's (1.42%) also points to a more effective service game.

Elina Svitolina vs Amanda Anisimova: Elina Svitolina to win the match (-135)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Elina Svitolina faces Amanda Anisimova at Canadian Open on Saturday 8 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Elina Svitolina wins the match. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Elina Svitolina presents significant value at 1.74 against Amanda Anisimova, highlighted by key performance indicators. Over their last five hard court matches, Svitolina boasts a first serve percentage of 53.2% and wins 69.7% of first serve points, compared to Anisimova’s 53.4% and 65.5%. Svitolina also excels in second serve points won at 47.6%, while Anisimova lags at 57.6%. Svitolina's pressure point performance is notably better; she saves 25.5% of break points, while Anisimova only manages 73.8%. While both players have fluctuating recent form, Svitolina's 60% win rate in her last 10 matches suggests a resurgence, whereas Anisimova's win rate stagnates at 40%. The combination of superior serving metrics and recent form indicates Svitolina should capitalize on Anisimova's vulnerabilities, making her the strong pick in this matchup.

Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul: Tommy Paul to win the match (-179)

Odds available at pinnacle at time of publishing

Learner Tien faces Tommy Paul at Canadian Open on Saturday 8 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Tommy Paul wins the match. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Analyzing recent form on hard courts, Paul has significantly outperformed Tien, with a first-serve percentage of 63.5% and a first-serve points won rate of 78.7%. In contrast, Tien's performance metrics are lacking, with no data provided, indicating potential struggles. Additionally, Paul's second-serve points won rate of 64.7% and a solid break point save percentage of 29.2% suggest he excels under pressure. Tien's opponent metrics reveal weaknesses, as they have a low first-serve points won percentage (71.4%) and a high break point save percentage (87.5%), indicating they may struggle against Paul's aggressive play.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks