Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Tuesday 04/07 (7-Leg) Featuring Victor Wembanyama!: Calculated Risk, High Reward

As the Atlanta Hawks prepare to face off against the New York Knicks, all eyes will be on Jalen Johnson's rebounding numbers. While he's been solid lately, averaging 10.2 boards at home, history suggests that 12.5 might be a stretch. In fact, against the Knicks, his home average dips to just 7.8 rebounds. The recent stats tell a compelling story: Johnson has hit the under in 15 of his last 17 games, with a notable home hit rate of 90%. With the Knicks' size and defensive focus, it's likely he'll find it tough to snag those boards. Given the odds favoring this under, betting on Johnson to finish with fewer than 12.5 rebounds looks like a savvy play. Keep an eye on this one-it could be a smart move in a matchup where expectations might be a bit inflated.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) Under 47.5 Points + Rebounds (-303)

As the San Antonio Spurs gear up to face the Philadelphia 76ers, it's wise to consider Victor Wembanyama's points and rebounds total, currently set at 47.5. While the rookie phenom has been electric, averaging 31.6 points and 16.4 rebounds over his last five games, the matchup may not favor an explosive outing. Against the 76ers, he's managed just 25.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on average in their last encounters, and even at home, he's only exceeded this mark 20% of the time in his last 20 games. With a home average of 33 points and 18 rebounds, the pressure and defensive scheme of Philadelphia could keep him in check. The implied probability of this bet hitting under suggests a solid 75.2%, making the under on Wembanyama's combined total a compelling play as the Spurs look to find their rhythm against a tough opponent.

Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks) Under 20.5 Rebounds + Assists (-294)

As the Hawks prepare to host the Knicks, all eyes will be on Jalen Johnson, but betting on him to hit the over for rebounds and assists feels risky. Though he's been impressive at home, averaging 10.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists over his last five games at State Farm Arena, the matchup against New York could dampen his output. Historically, Johnson has only managed an average of 4.4 assists against the Knicks at home, a stark contrast to his overall 6.8. With his recent overall hit rate sitting at 7 of 8, it's clear he's capable, but those numbers against this specific opponent raise concerns. Expect him to stay under the 20.5 total, especially as he navigates a tough defensive front. With an expected value of just 14.88 and a solid implied probability for the under, this bet feels like a savvy play in this matchup.

Franz Wagner (Orlando Magic) Over 9.5 Points (-222)

When the Orlando Magic take on the Detroit Pistons, all eyes should be on Franz Wagner. Playing at home, Wagner has been a scoring machine, averaging 16.2 points over his last five games on his own court. What's particularly enticing is his recent track record against the Pistons-he's been lighting them up for an average of 23.6 points in their last few matchups. That number isn't just a fluke; he's hit the over on 9.5 points in 19 of his last 20 home games, showcasing an impressive consistency that's hard to ignore. With an expected stat value of 19.26 points, it's clear he's poised for a big night. Given the way he's been scoring lately and Detroit's struggles on defense, betting on Wagner to exceed 9.5 points feels not just safe, but highly promising.

Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers) Over 23.5 Points (-250)

When the Philadelphia 76ers roll into San Antonio, all eyes should be on Joel Embiid, especially with his points line set at 23.5. In his last 16 games, he's been a scoring machine, hitting the over in 15 of those outings. Away from home, he's been even more impressive, averaging a whopping 30 points in his last five road games. Now, let's talk about the Spurs. Embiid has feasted on them recently, averaging an astounding 38 points against San Antonio in their last five matchups, and 35 of those on the road. With his current form and the stakes of this matchup, it feels like a perfect storm for him to not just hit, but blow past that 23.5 mark. Given his 71.4% implied probability, it's hard to see him not stepping up and delivering a standout performance tonight. Grab that over with confidence!

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 40.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)

When looking at Cooper Flagg's performance against the Dallas Mavericks, the numbers suggest a compelling case for taking the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 40.5. While he's been solid lately, averaging just over 30 points, 6 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists in recent games, his away stats tell a different story. On the road, his scoring drops to about 23 points-a significant dip. Historically, against the Mavericks, he's averaged 23 points and has only hit 35 once when away. Flagg's assist numbers have also dwindled, averaging just 2 against Dallas on the road. With a solid hit rate of 14 out of 19 in recent outings, the trend leans towards the under. As the Clippers face a tough Mavericks defense, it seems reasonable to expect Flagg to fall short of that 40.5 mark.