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Model picks & player props
Connecticut Sun
VS
Phoenix Mercury

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 9:19PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

WNBA
PHX Arena, Phoenix
Indoor
Sun 19 Jul 2026, 11:00PM
20
Game markets graded
17
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 170.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 37 markets for Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury (WNBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $187 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 60.4%, fair odds 2.00, book price -115, model edge +7.0%. Tip-off Sun 19 Jul 2026, 11:00PM at PHX Arena.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Diamond Miller Over 2.5 · $100 returned $262

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best WNBA market — 366 of 467 right (wnba spread calls)
This bet type · last timeAug 9
Dallas Wings 13.5
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
170.5
-115
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UndertotalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UndertotalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OvertotalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OvertotalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryh2hPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OvertotalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Connecticut Sun

  • Ashlon Jackson GOut
  • Raegan Beers FOut
  • Maria Kliundikova FOut

Phoenix Mercury

  • Kelsey Plum GOut
  • Kara Dunn GOut
  • Shay Ciezki GOut
  • Jovana Nogic GOut
Availability updated Aug 9, 8:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 7 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability7 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brittney Griner player_assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brittney Griner player_points_rebounds_assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Natasha Mack player_rebounds 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Diamond Miller player_rebounds 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Natasha Mack player_points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury — what the model found

Our model graded 37 betting markets for Connecticut Sun at Phoenix Mercury — 20 on the game itself and 17 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
17
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 37 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 36 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury — recent results

Phoenix Mercury have won 1 of their last 5 games; Connecticut Sun have won 1 of their last 5.

Phoenix Mercury — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L75–95WSHAway
L72–75CONAway
L82–96ATLAway
W106–101CHIAway
L92–94NYHome
Connecticut Sun — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W75–72PHXHome
L63–83DALAway
L88–94CHIAway
L84–92WSHAway
L88–123INDAway

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Phoenix Mercury won 1, Connecticut Sun won 2.

DatePhoenix MercuryConnecticut SunWinner
Aug 77275Connecticut Sun
Jul 197263Phoenix Mercury
Jul 188396Connecticut Sun

Who’s out or in doubt

7 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Phoenix Mercury
PlayerStatus
Kelsey Plum GOUT
Kara Dunn GOUT
Shay Ciezki GOUT
Jovana Nogic GOUT
Connecticut Sun
PlayerStatus
Ashlon Jackson GOUT
Raegan Beers FOUT
Maria Kliundikova FOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
6
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
19 Jul 26 Moneyline Phoenix Mercury ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Total Points Over 164.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points Over 163.5 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Total Points Over 164 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Total Points Under 170.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Total Points Under 169.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. You may also see this matchup written as Sun vs Mercury, or as Mercury vs Sun. The most recent game between them was Sunday 19 July 2026 at PHX Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 17 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your WNBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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