Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks) Under 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Atlanta Hawks gear up to face the New York Knicks, all eyes will be on Jalen Johnson, but betting the under on his combined rebounds and assists at 17.5 feels like a smart play. Despite his impressive recent form, averaging 11.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists over his last five games, he's been less effective on the road. When playing away, those numbers dip to about 10 boards and 7.4 assists. Moreover, against the Knicks, his away stats drop even more, with an average of just 9.8 rebounds and 6 assists in their encounters. The Knicks' defense tends to clamp down on players like Johnson, making it tough to hit that 17.5 mark. With his overall hit rate showing some promise, it's clear that the matchup and location suggest a dip in production. Betting the under here could just be the strategic move you need.

Moussa Diabate (Charlotte Hornets) Under 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Charlotte Hornets gear up to face the Orlando Magic, all eyes should be on Moussa Diabate's performance. While he's shown some promise lately, the numbers suggest a dip in production. Averaging just 8.6 rebounds and 3 assists over his last five games, Diabate's contributions have been solid yet unspectacular. When playing away, his numbers drop slightly, with averages of 8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Facing the Magic, who have been relatively tough on the boards, he's only managed 7 rebounds on average against them recently. Sure, he had a decent outing in the past, but with an expected stat value of just under 9, it's clear he'll struggle to hit that 12.5 mark. With a strong hit rate of 75% for the Under in his last four games, this prop feels like a smart play as the Hornets take the court.

Ayo Dosunmu (Minnesota Timberwolves) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-109)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When you look at Ayo Dosunmu's recent form, it's hard not to get excited about betting the over on his points and rebounds line of 14.5. Over his last five games, he's been a scoring machine, averaging nearly 18 points and nearly four rebounds. But what's even more impressive is his performance on the road, where he's ramped it up to 19 points and six rebounds per game. Against the Timberwolves, he has a solid track record, with his averages creeping up when playing away. The numbers tell a compelling story: he's hit this over in all of his last 13 games, including a perfect 9-for-9 in away contests. With the Nuggets' defense focusing on other stars, Dosunmu is primed to take advantage of any opportunities. This matchup is shaping up well for him, making that over on 14.5 feel like a smart wager.

Moussa Diabate (Charlotte Hornets) Under 10.5 Rebounds (-135)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

In Friday's matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Charlotte Hornets, targeting Moussa Diabate for under 10.5 rebounds feels like a savvy move. While he's shown promise, his recent performances tell a different story. Averaging just 8.6 rebounds over his last five games and a modest 8 on the road, it's clear that exceeding that 10.5 mark is a tall order. Even against the Hornets, where he's averaged 7 rebounds in their previous encounters, there's a trend emerging; on the road, his numbers dip to 10.3 against this opponent, reflecting the challenges of away games. With a solid hit rate of 5 out of his last 6 games, and particularly strong 3-for-3 on the road, it seems the under is a sweet spot here. Given his expected stat value of just 7.88, this wager aligns nicely with the data, making it a compelling play as the Magic look

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Under 6.5 Assists (-135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Warriors face the Suns, Draymond Green's assists could take a dip, making the Under 6.5 an enticing option. While Green's recent average sits at around 8 assists overall, he's been notably less effective away from home, posting just 6.6 assists in his last five road games. Against the Suns, he's historically averaged a mere 3.4 assists, and that trend holds true in their recent matchups. With Phoenix's defense focusing on limiting his playmaking abilities, you can expect him to struggle to hit that 6.5 mark. Moreover, his recent form shows he's only gone over this total in two of his last three games. Given that the implied probability for him staying under is a solid 57.5%, it feels right to lean into this prop. Green might be a key player, but on the road, the numbers suggest he won't be dishing out much more than 4 or 5 assists

LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 34.5 Points + Assists (-116)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Lakers host the Rockets, all eyes will be on LeBron James, but it might be wise to consider the under on his points and assists combined. At 34.5, that number feels a tad lofty, especially given LeBron's recent home performances, where he's averaged just 19 points and 8.8 assists over his last five games. Against the Rockets, he's found some success, averaging around 20.2 points, but his contributions have dipped at home to 26.6 points. Houston's defense may also tighten, as they've allowed LeBron to dish out only about 5.8 assists on average. With a hit rate of 11 out of his last 12 home games landing below this mark, the trend is telling. Factor in that he's scored under 34.5 in 17 of his last 20 matchups, and it feels like a calculated bet to lean towards the under here.

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