Jose Berrios (TOR) Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jose Berrios for Under 18.5 in the Pitcher Outs Recorded market is statistically sound based on his recent performances. Berrios's last five overall games show an average of 17.2 outs, which is below the line of 18.5. This trend is more pronounced in his home games, where his last five outings have averaged just 16 outs. Moreover, his average pitches per game, both overall and at home, are below 90, suggesting he may not have the stamina to exceed the 18.5 outs line. His performance against the White Sox also supports this bet, as he has averaged only 18 outs in his last five games against them. This data indicates that Berrios is likely to record fewer than 18.5 outs in the upcoming game.

Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-400)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Mitch Keller's Over 0.5 Walks Allowed bet is a solid choice given his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Keller has averaged two walks per game, well above the 0.5 threshold. This average holds true both overall and when playing at home. Even when facing the Texas Rangers specifically, his walks allowed average is zero, which still meets the Over 0.5 betting line. Additionally, Keller's current hit streaks, both overall and at home, suggest a trend of allowing hits, which could increase the likelihood of walks. Despite his average innings pitched being 5.5 and outs being 16.8, these numbers do not negate the potential for at least one walk in a game. Therefore, the statistical evidence points towards a good chance for Keller to allow over 0.5 walks in the upcoming match.

Ryan Pepiot (TBR) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-145)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 2.5 earned runs bet for Ryan Pepiot is statistically favored due to his recent performance against the Detroit Tigers and at home. In his last five games against the Tigers, Pepiot's average earned runs is significantly below the line at 1.3. This suggests he has been effective in limiting the Tigers' scoring. Additionally, his home performance also supports the under bet, as he has an average of only 1 earned run in his last five home games. Despite his overall earned runs average being 3, his specific performance against the Tigers and at home indicates a strong likelihood of him conceding fewer than 2.5 runs. Moreover, his current home hit streak of 8 games further substantiates this expectation. Therefore, the under 2.5 bet is a good choice based on Pepiot's specific performance data.

Jarren Duran (BOS) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Jarren Duran for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is backed by his recent performance data. Duran's averages for stolen bases are consistently low across various contexts. His overall and away averages for the last five games are zero and 0.2 respectively, indicating a low likelihood of stealing bases. Furthermore, against the Giants, his stolen base average is also low at 0.2. His current away hit streak is only 1, further suggesting he is less likely to get on base and have an opportunity to steal. Additionally, his average caught stealing (Cs) rate when playing away is 0.3, suggesting a risk in attempting steals. Therefore, based on Duran's recent performance, the bet for Under 0.5 stolen bases is a statistically sound choice.

Maikel Garcia (KCR) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Maikel Garcia for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a good choice, considering his recent performance data. His average stolen bases over the last five games overall and away are 0.4 and 0.2 respectively, both falling under the line of 0.5. This trend is even more pronounced against the Padres, with an average of 0 stolen bases in the last five matchups. Additionally, his current overall hit streak is at zero, indicating a recent lack of opportunities to steal bases. In away games, his hit streak is only at two, still providing limited chances for base stealing. Coupled with an average caught stealing rate of 0.4 in both overall and away games, the likelihood of Garcia exceeding 0.5 stolen bases in this game is low. Hence, the Under 0.5 bet is statistically sound.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-455)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under bet on Pete Crow-Armstrong for 0.5 stolen bases is statistically sound. Looking at the last five games, Crow-Armstrong's average stolen bases, both overall and at home, is only 0.2. This suggests that he is not frequently stealing bases. Additionally, his average caught stealing (Cs) rate is zero, indicating he doesn't attempt stealing bases often. His current hit streak, which could potentially provide opportunities for stealing bases, is also not impressive, standing at 1 overall and 2 at home. Hence, the probability of Crow-Armstrong stealing a base in the upcoming game appears to be low based on recent performance, making the under 0.5 stolen bases a good bet.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro