Today's Top MLB Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 09/05 (Dean Kremer Highlights): Best Value Bets

The bet on Paul Goldschmidt for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice given his consistent performance. His overall hits average in the last five games stands at 1.6, which is significantly above the line set at 0.5. His performance at home is even more impressive, with an average of 1.8 hits, and he is currently on a 12-game hit streak when playing at home. He has also performed well against the Toronto Blue Jays, with an average of 1.2 hits in the last five games. These statistics indicate that Goldschmidt has a high probability of hitting over 0.5 in the upcoming game, making this bet a statistically sound choice.

Josh Naylor (ARI) Over 0.5 Hits (-169)

Josh Naylor has been performing consistently, averaging 1.6 hits overall and 1.4 hits in away games over the last five games. This means he's been hitting at least once in the majority of his recent games, surpassing the line of 0.5. His average plate appearances (PA) are also high, at 4.6 both overall and in away games, which gives him ample opportunities to hit. His current hit streaks of 2 overall and 1 away indicate he's in good form. While his average hits against the Braves is lower, at 0.5, it still meets our line. Considering these stats, betting over 0.5 for Naylor's hits is a solid choice, expecting him to maintain his recent performance and hit at least once in the game.

Josh Naylor (ARI) Over 0.5 Hits (-169)

Josh Naylor's statistical performance makes a strong case for an Over 0.5 bet in the Batter Hits market. His overall recent batting average is 1.6 hits per game, well above the line of 0.5. Even when playing away games, his batting average remains high at 1.4 hits, again surpassing the line. His plate appearances averages (4.6 overall and 4.3 away) demonstrate that he gets sufficient opportunities to hit. He also has a current overall hit streak of 2 and an away hit streak of 1, indicating his consistency in hitting. Although his average against the Braves is lower (0.5), it's still at the line, implying a reasonable chance of a hit. All these factors combined indicate a high likelihood for Naylor to hit over 0.5 in the upcoming game.

Chris Sale (ATL) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-455)

The bet on Chris Sale for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is a good choice considering his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Sale has averaged 1.4 walks per game overall and 1.2 walks per game at home. These averages are both above the 0.5 line set for this bet, indicating a tendency to exceed this threshold. Furthermore, his innings pitched and outs averages suggest he is on the mound long enough to potentially allow a walk. Although his average walks allowed against this specific opponent is 0, the small sample size and his overall and home averages suggest this might not be a reliable predictor. His current hit streaks, both overall and at home, also imply that he is not in top form. These factors make the Over 0.5 walks bet a statistically sound choice.

Jacob Young (WSN) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

The under 0.5 bet for Jacob Young's stolen bases is a strong choice given his recent performance data. Young's overall and away averages for stolen bases in the last five games are both 0.2, suggesting he's not consistently stealing bases. Furthermore, when playing against the Cubs, his stolen base average drops to zero. Young's current hit streaks, both overall and away, are also low, indicating that he's not frequently getting on base, a necessary condition for stealing bases. Additionally, the Cubs' average caught stealing rate is 0.2, which could further deter Young from attempting to steal. This combination of factors makes it statistically unlikely for Young to steal a base in the upcoming game, making the under 0.5 bet a solid choice.