Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 07/13 (Callum Mills Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

Zak Butters is likely to go under 29.5 disposals against West Coast Eagles due to his recent performance trends. With a model predicting 26.7 disposals, Butters' average of 27.6 disposals in his last five home games supports this bet. His consistency in contested possessions (10.2) and uncontested possessions (18) align with a lower disposal count. Additionally, his turnovers (3.6) and intercepts (2) suggest a potential decrease in possessions. Despite a strong overall average of 29.6 disposals, his recent form and matchup history against West Coast averaging 21 disposals indicate a trend towards fewer disposals. Butters' current hit rate of 5/7 in home games also hints at a likelihood to fall under the line.

Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) Over 16.5 Disposals (+100)

Rowan Marshall is poised to exceed 16.5 disposals against the Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium. With a model predicting 18.7 disposals, indicating a 16.8% edge, Marshall's recent form showcases consistency. Averaging 17.4 disposals in his last five home games and 20.4 overall, he boasts a solid 56.5% disposal efficiency. Marshall's ability to cover ground is evident with 189.8 meters gained on average at home. Facing the Swans, against whom he averages 15.8 disposals, Marshall's current hit streak of 4 and 3/4 hit rate in recent home games further support the bet. Expect Marshall to continue his strong performance in disposals.

Matthew Owies (West Coast Eagles) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-149)

Matthew Owies presents a favorable opportunity to snag a goal in the upcoming game based on his recent form. With an average of 0.8 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 0 goals in the same span, Owies has shown consistent involvement in scoring opportunities. His average of 2.2 shots at goal and 4 score involvements per game further support his goal-scoring potential. Despite a modest 24.7% goal accuracy, his ability to generate shots and involvement inside 50 suggests he is likely to capitalize on chances. With a model predicting him to score 1.1 goals, representing a 16.3% edge, the bet on Owies to score anytime holds promise for this matchup.

Jacob Konstanty (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (+103)

Jacob Konstanty's recent form, averaging 0.4 goals in his last five away games and facing Melbourne, against whom he averages 1 goal, supports the bet on him to score anytime. With a solid average of 1.8 shots at goal and 26.7% goal accuracy in away matches, Konstanty is likely to trouble Melbourne's defense. His involvement in scoring plays, averaging 3 score involvements per game, and ability to get inside 50, averaging 1.2 per game, further enhance his goal-scoring potential. Considering the model's high prediction of 0.8 goals for Konstanty and a significant 15.3% edge, the bet on him to score anytime at the MCG presents a favorable opportunity.

Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Under 20.5 Disposals (-115)

Jy Simpkin, playing away, faces a tough matchup against Melbourne where he historically averages 18.8 disposals. However, Melbourne limits him to 24.5 disposals when playing away. Simpkin's recent form shows an average of 18.2 disposals, indicating a trend under the proposed line. With a solid contested possessions average of 8.6 but facing turnovers at 4.4, his disposals might be impacted. His disposals efficiency at 71.6% could be a saving grace, but the model's prediction of 18.2, coupled with a 13.8% edge, suggests he may fall short of the 20.5 line. Simpkin's streak of hitting below the line in away games aligns with this analysis, making the under 20.5 disposals bet enticing.