Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday 09/12 (John Noble Highlights): Best Value Bets

Wayne Milera's recent form, especially in home games, supports betting on him to exceed 15.5 disposals against Hawthorn. With a model prediction of 18.4, a significant 18.1% edge, and an implied probability of 53.8%, Milera's average of 18.2 disposals in his last five home games is promising. His consistency in contested possessions (5.6), kicks (13.6), and metres gained (403) further strengthens this bet. Despite facing Hawthorn's average of 13.8 disposals against them, Milera's overall stats, including an impressive disposalefficiency of 86.0%, make him a solid choice to hit this mark at home in Adelaide.

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 18.5 Disposals (-120)

Dylan Moore is poised to shine away against the Adelaide Crows based on his recent form. With a strong 21.5 model prediction and an impressive 17.7% edge, Moore's consistent performance, averaging 17 disposals over his last five away games, makes the Over 18.5 bet enticing. His L5 stats, including 9 kicks and 9 handballs per game, show his involvement in the game and ability to meet the line. Additionally, his recent hit streak and hit rate indicate he's in form, increasing the likelihood of exceeding 18.5 disposals. Moore's reliability and matchup history against the Crows further support this bet for potential value.

Ben King (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 1.5 Goals (-222)

Ben King is a prolific goal scorer, averaging 2.8 goals over his last five away games and maintaining a solid 69.1% goal accuracy. With an average of 4.2 shots at goal and 4.8 score involvements in his recent away performances, King consistently puts himself in scoring positions. Facing Brisbane, against whom he averages 2.3 goals in away matches, King's ability to convert is well-supported. His recent form, including an overall average of 3.6 goals, indicates a strong trend towards hitting the back of the net. Considering his track record and the model's prediction of 2.3 goals with a significant 17.1% edge, betting on Ben King to score over 1.5 goals is a statistically-backed and enticing proposition.

Will Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions) Under 27.5 Disposals (-114)

Will Ashcroft is likely to fall short of the 27.5 disposal line due to his recent form. Despite averaging 26 disposals in his last 5 home games, his turnovers have been high at 2.6 per game, impacting his overall efficiency. Facing the Gold Coast Suns where he averages 27.5 disposals, he may struggle as they have been a tough opponent for him. With an average of 26 disposals predicted by the model and a 15.9% edge, his recent inconsistency in hit rates (3/5 in home games) and high turnovers suggest he may not reach the line in this matchup. Considering his overall stats, taking the under on Ashcroft's disposals seems a prudent bet.

Wayne Milera (Adelaide Crows) Over 14.5 Disposals (-167)

Wayne Milera has been a consistent performer, averaging 18.2 disposals in his last 5 home games. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he averages 19 disposals, boosts his potential. With a model predicting him at 18.4 disposals, well above the line of 14.5, there's a 15.7% edge in favor of the over. Milera's recent form, high disposals average, and strong history against Hawthorn make this bet appealing. His high disposalefficiency (81.1%) and ability to gain meters effectively further support his capability to surpass the line. Betting on Milera to exceed 14.5 disposals in this home game at Adelaide Oval seems like a logical choice based on his data-driven consistency and matchup advantages.