Here are our AFL picks for Wednesday 5 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Under 92.5 totals_h1, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Under 92.5 totals_h1 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into why the Under 92.5 in the Totals H1 market for the Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks clash is looking mighty enticing. When we look at the recent form of both teams, we see a pattern emerging. The Brisbane Lions, known for their attacking prowess, have been averaging a solid 109 points per game at home but are facing a Hawthorn defense that has been stingy on the road, conceding just 72.4 points on average. With the Hawks also boasting a disciplined offense, averaging 106.4 points overall, this sets the stage for a tight battle where defenses could prevail. Factor in the Lions' recent trend of tighter first-half contests, and we have a recipe for a low-scoring affair. So, expect the big sticks to stay quiet in the early stages of this showdown at the Gabba.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to the clash between the Sydney Swans and the Port Adelaide Power at the historic SCG, the numbers paint a clear picture. The Swans, riding high on a streak of dominant home performances, boast an impressive average margin of 27.6 points in their last five games at home. Their offensive firepower, averaging 100.8 points per game during this stretch, is set to challenge Port Adelaide's defense, which has struggled on the road, conceding 90 points on average. With the Power's away form showing a significant deficit, averaging a -24 margin, and the Swans' relentless attack backed by solid defensive displays, taking the Swans to cover the -9.5 spread in the final quarter seems like a wise bet. The SCG faithful may witness the Swans snagging a crucial victory in style.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks: Under 93.5 totals_h2 (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's break down why taking the 'Under 93.5' in the Totals H2 market for the Brisbane Lions versus Hawthorn Hawks clash at the Gabba is a savvy play. The Lions, averaging a robust 111 points over their last five outings, boast a potent attack. However, they're up against a stingy Hawks defense, giving up just 65 points on average recently. The Hawks, solid defensively, are no slouches on offense either, averaging 106 points in their last five matchups. The Lions tend to dominate possession, with an average of 61.8 Inside50s at home, but the Hawks' disciplined backline could limit their scoring opportunities. With both teams trending towards tighter contests and the line set at 93.5, expect a hard-fought battle leading to a lower-scoring affair. The data suggests a defensive struggle could be on the cards, making the 'Under' an enticing bet.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing matchup between the Adelaide Crows and the Richmond Tigers at the Adelaide Oval. The Tigers, despite their recent struggles on the road, are showing signs of resilience. Adelaide, known for their attacking prowess, boasts an impressive average of 105.2 points per game over the last five matches. However, their defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 73.2 points. On the flip side, Richmond has struggled away from home, but their defensive efforts have been commendable, limiting opponents to 93.8 points on average. With the Tigers getting a generous 13.5-point head start in this clash, their solid defensive setup could make it tough for Adelaide to run away with a big victory. Expect a tight contest where the Tigers could cover the spread and keep things interesting till the final siren.
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers: Over 12.5 team_totals_q1 (-135)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Let's talk footy, folks! When the Adelaide Crows clash with the Richmond Tigers at the Adelaide Oval, there's a feeling of high-scoring action in the air. The Tigers have been sniffing around the goals lately, averaging 9.2 target goals in their last five away games. With an impressive 44 inside 50s and 17.8 shots on goal per match on the road, the Tigers are hungry to snag a big score. On the other end, the Crows have shown a bit of vulnerability defensively, conceding an average of 73.2 points over their last five games. With the Tigers looking sharp in attack and the Crows leaking points at home, backing the Tigers to go over 12.5 total points in the first quarter seems like a tantalizing bet. Expect the Richmond boys to come out firing and split the middle early on!
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power: Sydney Swans -9.5 spreads_q3 (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy fans, let's dive into why backing the Sydney Swans at -9.5 in the third-quarter spread against Port Adelaide Power could be a savvy move. The Swans have been on fire at home lately, averaging a solid 27.6 point margin in their last five games at the SCG. They've been ruthless in attack, scoring an impressive 100.8 points per game while locking down defensively, conceding just 73.2 points on average. On the flip side, Port Adelaide has struggled on the road, suffering an average margin of -24 points in their last five away games. Their scoring output has been lackluster, managing only 66 points per game while leaking 90 points defensively. With the Swans' potent attack and stout defense facing Port Adelaide's road woes, the Swans look primed to snag a comfortable win by more than 9.5 points in the third quarter.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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