On Sunday 30 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Toronto Tempo in the WNBA. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 178.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 178.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The bet here is for under 178.5 total points in the game between the Phoenix Mercury and the Toronto Tempo, and our numbers suggest it has a good chance. The Mercury have had a tough time lately, winning only 3 of their last 10 games. They also struggle with rebounding, giving up an average of 35.6 boards a game, which often leads to fewer scoring chances. The Tempo aren't doing much better, winning just 1 of their last 10 games. They force turnovers at a lower rate than most teams, which could limit their scoring opportunities as well. With both teams showing weak scoring trends, there's a solid risk that the total could fall short, especially given our model estimates a combined score closer to 172.8. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Toronto Tempo +13.5 on the Line (-233)
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
For Toronto Tempo to cover a 13.5 point spread, they need to keep the game close tonight. Even though they've had a rough stretch, winning just 1 of their last 10 games, the Mercury have also struggled, winning only 3 of their last 10. Phoenix allows a lot of threes and rebounds, which could give Toronto some chances to score. It's a tough matchup, but with both teams having issues, Toronto could sneak in under the spread. It was priced at -233 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Toronto Tempo. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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