Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Saturday 04/04 (7-Leg) Featuring Mitchell Robinson!: High Probability Plays

As the Toronto Raptors head to Memphis, all eyes will be on Scottie Barnes, but I'm inclined to take the under on his assists at 10.5. While he's been dazzling with an average of 12.2 assists over his last five games, that number dips to 9.6 when he's on the road. Moreover, facing the Grizzlies, he has historically struggled, averaging just 5.2 assists in away matchups against them.Adding to this, his overall hit rate is impressive-he's gone under in 16 of his last 20 games, and an even more staggering 13 out of his last 15 on the road. The Grizzlies' defense can be stifling, especially at home, which further supports the likelihood of Barnes falling short of that 10.5 mark. With an implied probability of 76.3%, this is a compelling opportunity to capitalize on his expected dip.

Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors) Under 19.5 Rebounds + Assists (-345)

As the Raptors head into Memphis, all eyes will be on Scottie Barnes, but don't be surprised if he struggles to hit that 19.5 combined rebounds and assists mark. Let's unpack this a bit. On the road, Barnes has averaged just 9.6 assists over his last five games, a stark contrast to his 12.2 overall average-indicating that he might not find the same rhythm away from home. When facing the Grizzlies, he's recorded around 5.2 assists and 6 rebounds, which brings him well below that threshold we're concerned about. With an impressive 18 out of his last 20 games hitting under this line, and a staggering 16 of his last 17 away games following suit, the trend is hard to ignore. This matchup could see Barnes fall short, making the under a compelling play as he navigates a tough Memphis defense.

Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks) Under 20.5 Rebounds + Assists (-303)

As the Hawks gear up to face the Nets, Jalen Johnson's numbers suggest a solid case for taking the under on his combined rebounds and assists at 20.5. While he's been a key contributor, recent performances tell a different story-averaging 9 boards and 8.2 assists over his last five games, his effectiveness dips on the road. Specifically, his away averages drop to 8.8 rebounds and 7.6 assists, and against the Nets, he's managed just 2 assists in previous matchups. Moreover, his recent form shows that he's hit the under in six of his last seven games, showcasing a pattern that's hard to ignore. With an expected stat value of just 14.39 in this matchup, it seems the 20.5 line might be a tad ambitious. With the Nets playing strong at home, Johnson could face tough defensive matchups, making the under a smart play.

Ousmane Dieng (Milwaukee Bucks) Under 3.5 Threes Made (-385)

As the Milwaukee Bucks gear up to face the Boston Celtics, all eyes are on Ousmane Dieng, but let's not get carried away with expectations for his three-point shooting. Despite his recent form, where he's knocked down an impressive three per game at home, the reality is that he's averaging just 1.8 threes in his last five outings. When pitted against the Celtics, a team known for its defensive prowess, Dieng has only managed an average of 1.5 threes in their previous matchups. With the pressure of the game and the strategic adjustments that often come into play, it's hard to envision him surpassing the 3.5 mark. The data suggests he's not just a home player; he's a selective scorer. Betting the under on his threes made seems like a savvy move, particularly with his recent home hit rate of just 3 for 3 and a strong trend leaning under.

Ousmane Dieng (Milwaukee Bucks) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-250)

As the Milwaukee Bucks prepare to take on the Boston Celtics, all eyes should be on Ousmane Dieng and his player prop for points, rebounds, and assists combined. At 30.5, the under feels like a savvy play. Dieng has been consistently underwhelming against Boston, averaging just 7.5 points when they meet, and his home numbers aren't much better-12.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and only 3.8 assists. His recent form also raises eyebrows; over the last five games, he's only putting up 16.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. With a hit rate of 19 out of 20 for this under bet and a perfect record at home, it's clear that Dieng struggles to exceed this mark, especially against a tough Celtics defense. Expect him to fall short once again in this matchup.

Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors) Under 10.5 Rebounds (-500)

As the Toronto Raptors gear up to face the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes should be on Scottie Barnes' rebounding numbers, particularly his line set at 10.5. Given his recent performances, the under seems not just plausible, but likely. In his last five games, Barnes has averaged a modest 5 rebounds overall, and when playing away, he's only managed 5.8. The trend continues against Memphis, where his average dips to 6 on the road. Moreover, Barnes has been consistently under this mark, hitting the under in his last 12 away games, showcasing a clear pattern. The Grizzlies are a formidable opponent, and their frontcourt is not easy to navigate, which could further limit Barnes' opportunities on the glass. With an expected stat value of just 6.67, taking the under feels like a safe bet in this matchup. It's hard to ignore the numbers telling us Scottie may struggle to reach that 10.5