On Friday 9 October 2026, Bayer Leverkusen play SC Freiburg in Bundesliga. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Bayer Leverkusen Draw No Bet, priced at -357 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
When Bayer Leverkusen hosts SC Freiburg, the odds seem heavily stacked in favor of the home side. Leverkusen’s recent form at home showcases their strength, with an impressive average of 2.4 goals scored per game while conceding just 0.8 over their last five home matches. Moreover, their attacking stats are eye-catching; they generate around 24.8 shots per game, with nearly 8.6 landing on target. Against Freiburg, Leverkusen holds a solid historical advantage, winning three of their last five encounters. With an xG average that suggests they create quality chances regularly, it’s reasonable to expect them to outscore Freiburg, who have struggled away from home. Given Leverkusen's strong home record combined with their ability to limit opponents, betting on them in a Draw No Bet market presents a compelling opportunity. If they don’t win, it’s hard to see Freiburg causing an upset here.
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-139)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Bayer Leverkusen prepares to face SC Freiburg, the smart play appears to be on the 'Under 3.5' total goals. While Leverkusen has shown promise at home, averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in their last five home matches, their recent form suggests a more cautious approach. They’ve struggled to convert chances into high xG figures, posting an average of just 0 in their last outings. Freiburg, too, has had their share of defensive solidity, conceding 1.2 goals on average lately. Moreover, Leverkusen’s past matchups against Freiburg have often seen lower-scoring affairs, with the last five meetings leaning towards fewer goals. Given the current trends—Leverkusen's 2-2-1 record in their last five and Freiburg's tendency to grind out results—the expectation is for a tactical battle rather than a goal-fest. Thus, betting on 'Under 3.5' feels like a savvy move here.
That is how our model reads Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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