AFL Player Prop Tips Tuesday 07/07: Logan McDonald & More

Noah Anderson is one of the competition's premier ball-winners, and the numbers strongly support backing him to go over 25.5 disposals against Adelaide. The model projects him at 31.4 touches — nearly six clear of the line — generating a 17.9% edge against the implied 70.4% probability baked into the $1.42 price. That's a meaningful gap worth acting on. The away-game context is particularly compelling here. Over his last five away trips, Anderson is averaging 28.8 disposals, combining 17.6 kicks with 11.2 handballs and an impressive 588.8 metres gained — suggesting he's not just accumulating, he's moving the ball with purpose. He's hit this line in four of his last four away games, a streak that aligns with his overall L5 average of 30 disposals. Even his L5 record against Adelaide specifically sits at 27.2, comfortably above the line. The model's edge is real and the form backs it up.

Jye Amiss (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals (-244)

Jye Amiss is shaping as a genuine value play at home against Sydney. The model projects him at 2.5 goals against a line of 1.5, generating a 17.8% edge over the implied probability of 70.9% — that's a meaningful gap worth acting on. At Optus Stadium over his last five home games, Amiss is averaging 2.8 goals on 5.0 shots at goal with a 64.7% accuracy rate and 3.6 marks inside 50 — the kind of forward craft that consistently clears a two-goal line. His home hit rate of 6/8 over the last eight games backs that up, and across all games in the last 14 he's cleared the line 11 times. His head-to-head numbers against Sydney are softer at 1.2 overall, but the home ground advantage and his current shot volume make this a well-supported edge, not a leap of faith.

Connor Idun (GWS GIANTS) Under 22.5 Disposals (-111)

Connor Idun's disposal numbers look inflated relative to where the model has him priced. The projection sits at 19.9 against a line of 22.5, representing a 17.6% edge at $1.90 — the implied probability of 52.6% understates what the model sees as a genuinely skewed outcome. While Idun's L5 home average of 22.2 disposals sits close to the line, the matchup data is the real tell: he's averaging just 16.4 disposals across his last five against Geelong, and only 13.5 in home games specifically against the Cats. That's a significant drop-off that the raw home average masks. His home hit rate of 3/4 in the last four games under this line adds further confidence, and he's currently on a two-game home streak covering. Geelong's defensive structure tends to limit uncontested touches, which is where Idun does most of his work — 14.6 uncontested per home game. The numbers point clearly under.

Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) Over 1.5 Goals (-238)

Jake Waterman is averaging 2.4 goals across his last five overall — exactly matching the model's projection and sitting well clear of the 1.5 line. He's hit this mark in four of his last five games, and with the model pricing the true probability at around 70.4% against an implied 58.8% from the $1.42 odds, there's a genuine 17.4% edge here worth acting on. The away context is the one note of caution — his L5 away goal average dips to 1.6, and his record specifically against the Bulldogs away is modest. But the underlying shot creation tells a more encouraging story: 5 shots at goal per away game with 2.4 marks inside 50, generating 7.6 score involvements. That's a forward who gets to the ball in dangerous positions regularly. The goal accuracy away (32.7%) is the soft spot, but with that volume of chances, clearing 1.5 goals remains a well-supported edge.

Isaac Quaynor (Collingwood) Over 15.5 Disposals (-119)

Quaynor is a strong play here against a North Melbourne side that consistently concedes easy ball movement to opposition defenders. The model has him at 18.3 disposals — 2.8 clear of the 15.5 line — generating a 17.1% edge against the 54.3% implied probability baked into the $1.84. That's a meaningful gap worth acting on. The home context is particularly compelling. Over his last five home games, Quaynor is averaging exactly 18 disposals, hitting this line at a 3/4 clip in his last four at Marvel Stadium and riding a two-game home hit streak. His disposal efficiency of 87.4% at home tells you these aren't garbage touches — he's winning uncontested ball (12.8 per game) and moving it cleanly. His L5 record against North Melbourne sits at 18.4 overall, and 5/6 across his last six games broadly clears this number comfortably. Solid edge.