On Thursday 30 July 2026, Richmond Tigers play West Coast Eagles in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) Over 1.5 Goals, priced at -417 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles) Over 1.5 Goals (-417)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag goals, Jake Waterman is a compelling choice for hitting Over 1.5 in the upcoming clash against Richmond. Recently, in his last five away games, he's been a consistent threat, averaging 1.2 goals per game. His sharp shooting and involvement in creating scoring opportunities are evident in his 30.2% goal accuracy and 5.8 score involvements per game away from home. Facing Richmond, where he averages 0.7 goals in his last five matchups, Waterman has a prime opportunity to exploit their defense. With his form and ability to impact the scoreboard, backing Waterman to go Over 1.5 goals is a smart play with a high probability of hitting based on his recent performance metrics.

Elliot Yeo (West Coast Eagles) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Elliot Yeo, the midfield warrior for the West Coast Eagles, is set to make waves at the MCG against the Richmond Tigers. Yeo has been a beacon of consistency, averaging 14.2 disposals in his last five away games, including a solid 20.2 disposals against Richmond specifically. His recent form showcases his ability to dominate the contested possessions, with an impressive 6.2 average in away games. Yeo's knack for creating turnovers and intercepts adds another dimension to his game, making him a pivotal figure in the Eagles' midfield battle. With a current hit streak of 7 in away games and a stellar 85.5% implied probability to surpass 11.5 disposals, Yeo is primed to shine on the field and rack up the possessions needed to secure the over in this player prop bet.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 18.5 Disposals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player who's primed to shine in the disposals department, Jayden Short stands out like a beacon in the night. Set to strut his stuff at the MCG in front of the Richmond faithful, Short's recent form is nothing short of impressive. Over his last five home games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a hefty 22.4 possessions per outing, with a knack for racking up an average of 17.8 kicks and 4.6 handballs. Against the upcoming opponents, the West Coast Eagles, he's been even more prolific, averaging 20 disposals per game. With such solid numbers and a recent hit streak, backing Short to surpass the 18.5 disposal line seems like a smart play for footy punters looking to snag a win on this Sunday showdown.

That is how our model reads Richmond Tigers v West Coast Eagles. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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