Jesse Hogan (GWS GIANTS) Over 1.5 Goals (-192)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jesse Hogan's recent form, especially on the road, supports betting on him to score over 1.5 goals against Brisbane. With an average of 3.6 goals in his last five away games and hitting 10 out of 11 games with goals away, Hogan is in a scoring groove. His impressive marks inside 50 and score involvements indicate he's heavily involved in the Giants' attacking plays. Facing Brisbane, where he averages 2.5 goals when away, Hogan's scoring potential is further boosted. His current hit rate streaks and overall consistency make him a strong contender to snag more than 1.5 goals in this matchup, aligning well with the model's prediction and the statistical edge presented.

Neil Erasmus (Fremantle) Under 16.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Neil Erasmus is predicted to have 13.5 disposals with a 19.6% edge to go under 16.5 against North Melbourne. His recent away form shows lower contested possessions (4.6) and turnovers (3.2), indicating potential difficulty reaching higher disposals. Despite averaging 15.6 disposals away, his recent performances against this opponent and overall suggest a trend towards fewer disposals than the line. With solid uncontested possessions (11.6) but lower kicks (7.4), Erasmus may struggle to meet the higher disposal mark. His consistent but slightly below-average form indicates a strong chance of staying under the line, making this bet appealing based on his recent stats and matchup dynamics.

George Hewett (Carlton) Under 28.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

George Hewett is poised to go under 28.5 disposals against the West Coast Eagles due to his recent performance trends. Despite a solid overall hit rate, his averages in contested possessions (14.6) and disposals (28.2) in away games suggest a slight dip. Facing the Eagles, who have limited him to an average of 31 disposals in their last five encounters, further supports this bet. Hewett's consistent L5 contested possessions and disposals below the line, combined with the model's prediction of 25.3 and a 19.4% edge, make the under 28.5 disposals a favorable choice for this matchup at Optus Stadium in Perth.

Blake Acres (Carlton) Under 19.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Blake Acres is likely to fall short of 19.5 disposals based on his recent performance metrics. Despite averaging 20.2 disposals in his last five away games, his L5 against the upcoming opponent and overall average disposals sit at 25 and 16.4, respectively. Acres' contested possessions (6.4) and disposal efficiency (60.8%) also suggest he may struggle against West Coast Eagles. With a model prediction of 16.2 and a solid edge of 19.1%, Acres' recent hit rate of 4/5 for overall disposals further supports this bet. Additionally, playing away adds another layer of challenge, making the under 19.5 disposals for Acres a favorable wager.

Nate Caddy (Essendon) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nate Caddy is a solid pick to snag a goal in the Essendon vs. Geelong matchup. With a model prediction of 1.5 goals and a recent average of 1.6 goals in his last five home games, Caddy's goal-scoring form is consistent. His above-average shots at goal (3.6) and involvement in the scoring plays (5 score involvements) further support his goal-scoring potential. Despite a slight deviation in goal accuracy (37.7%), Caddy's ability to create opportunities with 2.6 inside 50s and 1.4 marks inside 50 enhances his chances of splitting the middle. The model's 18.9% edge and the implied probability of 71.9% back Caddy as a strong contender to hit the back of the net in this game.

Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle) Under 29.5 Disposals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Andrew Brayshaw is likely to fall short of the 29.5 disposal line against North Melbourne based on recent data. Despite averaging 28.4 disposals in his last five away games, his historical performance against North Melbourne (27 disposals on average) and overall season average of 26.6 disposals suggest he may not reach the 29.5 mark. Additionally, his turnovers average of 4.2 in away games and the Kangaroos' ability to limit opponents' disposals further support this bet. With a standard deviation of 5 from his model prediction of 26.3, there's a strong 18.6% edge favoring the under. Brayshaw's current away hit rate of 11/18 also indicates a likelihood of missing the line.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro