Today's Tennis Best Bets - Our Top 6 Picks

Here are our Tennis picks for Monday 3 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor: Lorenzo Sonego to win the match, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor: Lorenzo Sonego to win the match (+110)

Lorenzo Sonego faces Tallon Griekspoor at Canadian Open on Monday 3 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Lorenzo Sonego wins the match. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Lorenzo Sonego is a strong value pick at 2.1 against Tallon Griekspoor, supported by key performance metrics in recent matches. Sonego's last five matches on hard courts show a solid 70.4% first serve percentage and 74.5% points won on his first serve, indicating effectiveness in serving under pressure. His second serve performance is also commendable with a 56.8% win rate. Additionally, Sonego excels in break point situations, saving 51.4% of break points faced. In contrast, Griekspoor's metrics reveal a lower first serve percentage of 64.1% and a slightly weaker points won on first serve (72.7%).

Emerson Jones vs Lanlana Tararudee: Emerson Jones to win the match (+220)

Emerson Jones faces Lanlana Tararudee at Canadian Open on Monday 3 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Emerson Jones wins the match. It was priced at +220 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $32 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Analyzing recent form, Jones has a win rate of 60% over his last five matches, showcasing solid performance on hard courts, where his first serve percentage stands impressively at 62.6%. His ability to win 60.5% of first serve points and 34.2% of second serve points further underlines his effectiveness in pressure situations. Jones also excels in breaking points saved (over 136%), indicating resilience under pressure. In contrast, Tararudee’s stats show no recent form or serve metrics, suggesting vulnerability. Overall, Jones’s superior serve performance and recent form make him the favorable pick in this matchup.

Luca Van Assche vs Titouan Droguet: Titouan Droguet to win the match (+102)

Luca Van Assche faces Titouan Droguet at Canadian Open on Monday 3 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Titouan Droguet wins the match. It was priced at +102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.20 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. On hard courts, his first serve percentage stands at 63.0%, with 79.5% of first points won, which indicates strong serve performance. His second serve points won rate of 56.4% and a solid break point save percentage of 67.5% further highlight his ability to handle pressure effectively. In contrast, Van Assche has not shown any significant serve metrics or form indicators, making Droguet's serve-based metrics substantially more predictive. Given these factors, Droguet is a strong pick in this matchup.

Alina Korneeva vs Polina Kudermetova: Polina Kudermetova to win the match (+185)

Alina Korneeva faces Polina Kudermetova at Canadian Open on Monday 3 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Polina Kudermetova wins the match. It was priced at +185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.50 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Polina Kudermetova presents significant value at odds of 2.85 against Alina Korneeva, with a model probability of 60.9% vs. In their recent form, both players have a win rate of 60%, but Kudermetova's surface stats are superior. Over her last five matches on hard courts, she boasts a first-serve percentage of 55.8% and wins 67.1% of first-serve points, indicating effective serving under pressure. Additionally, she has a solid 43.7% break point save rate, showcasing resilience in critical moments. Conversely, Korneeva's performance metrics are untracked, suggesting a potential vulnerability. This lack of data, combined with Kudermetova's stronger serving stats and recent form, makes her the more reliable pick in this matchup.

Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx: Alexander Blockx to win the match (+100)

Jaume Munar faces Alexander Blockx at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexander Blockx wins the match. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Alexander Blockx presents significant value against Jaume Munar at the Canadian Open, evidenced by his strong recent performance metrics. Blockx boasts a 60% win rate over his last ten matches, showcasing consistent form. On hard courts, he excels with a first-serve percentage of 67.85% and a first-serve points won rate of 75.76%, critical for maintaining pressure in tight matches. Additionally, Blockx's second-serve points won sits at 52.19%, reflecting his ability to recover from less favorable situations. Munar, on the other hand, has struggled in recent matchups, with an overall serve performance that lacks notable statistics. Blockx's superior BP save rate of 73.56% further indicates his resilience under pressure, making him the more formidable competitor in crucial moments.

Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev: Andrey Rublev to win the match (-189)

Juncheng Shang faces Andrey Rublev at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Andrey Rublev wins the match. It was priced at -189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Analyzing recent performance on hard courts, Rublev boasts a first-serve percentage of 62.5% and wins 79.9% of first-serve points, showcasing his strong serving capabilities. His second-serve success rate stands at 49.6%, adding to his overall serve points won at 68.9%. In contrast, Shang's metrics on hard surfaces are untested, with no recorded serve percentages or win rates, leaving him vulnerable. Moreover, Rublev's strong break point save percentage (70%) indicates resilience under pressure, while Shang has not had enough competitive exposure to gauge his response in critical moments. With Rublev exhibiting superior form, a win rate of 100% in his last five matches, and a robust serve performance, he is well-positioned to secure victory in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.