Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 5.5 Rebounds (-145)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Golden State Warriors head to Phoenix, all eyes will be on Gui Santos, but I'm leaning towards him falling short of the 5.5 rebound mark. Over the last five games, he's averaged just 4.8 rebounds overall, and when the lights shine brightest on the road, that number dips to 6.4, which can be misleading given his matchup tonight. In his last outings against the Suns, he's pulled down only 4.2 boards on average, and even lower-4.8-when playing in Phoenix. Plus, his recent form shows just a 69% hit rate on this prop, making the under a tempting bet. With an expected stat value of about 4.03, it seems the odds favor us here. In a fast-paced game against a playoff contender, I wouldn't be surprised if Santos struggles to find his rhythm on the glass tonight.

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors : Phoenix Suns win (-143)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Phoenix Suns are proving themselves to be a force to be reckoned with this season, making them a solid bet. Their home court advantage is a key factor in this match-up against the Golden State Warriors. Historically, they've shown a strong ability to capitalize on their home games, with a high win percentage that outperforms the Warriors' away game record. Coupled with their dominant performance this season, this gives the Suns a substantial edge. Our model's prediction leans heavily towards Phoenix, with a 0.79 score indicating a high level of confidence in their victory. Furthermore, the Suns' form and home record create an implied probability of 58.8%, further supporting the bet on them. In summary, Phoenix's strong performance metrics make them a compelling bet for the Moneyline market.

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