Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction & Picks (Carson Kelly Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

As the Cubs host the Mets on April 17th, keep a close eye on Carson Kelly. The Cubs' pitching staff has struggled a bit lately, and their right-handers have been particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters. Enter Kelly, who’s been on a roll, consistently finding gaps in the outfield despite being relatively new to the lineup. With a solid batting average against right-handed pitching and a keen eye for hanging sliders, he’s poised to take advantage of a favorable matchup. The Mets, while trying to find their footing, have allowed more hits than they’d like, especially when facing aggressive bats. Given Kelly's recent form and the Cubs' current pitching trends, betting on him to record at least one hit feels like a smart move. With an implied probability of over 68%, the stars seem aligned for Kelly to deliver in this matchup.

Alex Bregman (HOU) Over 0.5 Hits (-233)

As the Cubs face off against the Mets, keep a close eye on Alex Bregman to record over 0.5 hits. Bregman has been a hitting machine lately, showcasing his ability to find gaps with a .300 batting average against right-handers this season. The Mets' starting pitcher, with a tendency to struggle with command, has allowed a high on-base percentage among right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, the Cubs' lineup has been hitting the ball hard, averaging over five runs per game. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley, the stage is set for Bregman to capitalize. Recent trends show him heating up at the plate, and given the current form of the Mets' pitching staff, it's hard to see him not getting at least one hit. With an implied probability of nearly 70%, placing your chips on Bregman to go over 0.5 hits feels like a smart play in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Under 12.5 Total Runs (-213)

As the Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets, we’re looking at a matchup that hints at a low-scoring affair. Both teams have been trending toward the under, with the Cubs boasting a solid 3.80 team ERA over their last ten games. The Mets, meanwhile, have struggled to find their offensive rhythm, averaging just 3.5 runs per game during the same stretch. On the mound, the Cubs’ starter has been particularly effective, consistently keeping hitters off balance and limiting hard contact. Facing a Mets lineup that has fanned more than 25% of the time lately, expect a few quiet innings. With the total set at 12.5, there’s room for a lower-scoring showdown. Given the Cubs’ ability to stifle runs and the Mets’ recent struggles, taking the under feels like the play here. The numbers back it up, and the game script is certainly leaning toward a defensive battle.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Chicago Cubs Win (-143)

As the Cubs gear up to face the Mets, there’s a palpable sense of momentum in Chicago. The Cubs have been on a tear, boasting a robust home record that reflects their prowess at Wrigley Field. Their recent form has seen them capitalize on timely hitting, with a lineup that’s consistently finding gaps and driving in runs. On the mound, the Cubs’ starter has been sharp, translating strikeouts into key outs, and the Mets will need to dig deep to break through. New York has struggled offensively lately, often leaving runners stranded and failing to capitalize against left-handed pitching. With a solid mix of aggressive offense and stingy pitching, the Cubs are not just riding the wave, they’re looking to establish dominance at home. This matchup leans heavily in their favor, making them an enticing choice for the moneyline. Expect the Cubs to seize this opportunity and keep the momentum rolling.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-114)

As the Cubs and Mets clash at Wrigley Field, the stage is set for a pitching duel. The Cubs have leaned heavily on their reliable starter, who’s been sensational lately, boasting a 2.95 ERA over his last five outings. He’s adept at keeping hitters off balance, and that’s crucial against a Mets lineup that struggles against left-handers. On the flip side, the Mets' ace has also found his groove, posting a stellar 3.10 ERA in his recent starts. Both teams have been trending towards the under, with Chicago averaging just 4.1 runs per game in their last week and New York not faring much better at 4.3. With the wind likely blowing in at Wrigley and both offenses sputtering, this matchup is screaming 'Under 10.5'. Expect a tightly contested game where runs are at a premium, making this bet a compelling play.