On Thursday 30 July 2026, Carlton Blues play Brisbane Lions in the AFL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -333 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Brodie Kemp's recent form, it's clear he's been building momentum playing in front of the home crowd. In his last 5 home games, Kemp has been getting involved in the action, averaging 1 shot at goal per game and showcasing his goal sense by bagging an average of 0.6 goals. While his accuracy could be sharper, at 30%, his ability to create scoring opportunities with 1.4 marks inside 50 and 4.6 score involvements per game is impressive. Facing the Brisbane Lions, against whom he has averaged 0 goals in their last 5 encounters, Kemp is due for a breakthrough performance. With a strong hit rate in home games and the potential to impact the scoreboard, backing Kemp to snag over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play in this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

Oliver Hollands (Carlton) Over 11.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between the Carlton Blues and the Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium, all eyes are on Oliver Hollands to shine on his home turf. With a hot streak of 16 consecutive hits in home games, Hollands has been a consistent force in recent matchups. Averaging 16 disposals per game at home, he's been a pivotal figure in the Blues' midfield, showcasing a solid 76.2% disposal efficiency. Facing the Lions, against whom he's averaged 21 disposals in his last five encounters, Hollands is poised to surpass the 11.5 disposal line set by bookmakers. With his knack for finding space, sharp kicking skills, and the home crowd behind him, backing Hollands to surpass this mark is a smart move for punters looking to snag a win.

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 16.5 Disposals (-667)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable midfielders, Darcy Wilmot of the Brisbane Lions stands out as a sure bet. His last five away games have been a masterclass in ball control and influence, averaging 24.8 disposals per game. Against Carlton, he's even more formidable, averaging 19.5 disposals over his last five matchups. Wilmot's ability to find space and create opportunities is undeniable, with a stellar 81.0% disposal efficiency on the road. With a current seven-game hit streak away and a consistent track record, Wilmot is poised to shine at Marvel Stadium. Expect him to hit his disposal line comfortably and be a linchpin in the Lions' midfield battle. The data paints a clear picture of a player in top form, making the Over 16.5 disposals for Darcy Wilmot a smart play for this showdown.

That is how our model reads Carlton Blues v Brisbane Lions. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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