On Sunday 6 September 2026, Bowling Green Falcons play Tarleton State Texans in college football. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 45.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Over 45.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

The bet on over 45.5 total points at -110 looks promising for the matchup between Bowling Green and Tarleton State. Our numbers suggest it's almost a 50-50 chance for both teams to score enough points to hit that total, and they project a combined score of around 46.7. Both teams can put points on the board, making this a fun one to watch. The biggest risk is how close the two teams are in talent, which means it could go either way if one team struggles. Overall, though, the numbers lean toward a higher-scoring game. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Bowling Green Falcons -2.5 on the Line (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Bowling Green Falcons are favored by 2.5 points against Tarleton State Texans, and the odds at -112 make it a fair bet. Our numbers really like Bowling Green in this matchup, rating them as a strong favorite. They have a solid offense that should outscore the Texans, and our model predicts they'll win by about 21 points. The biggest risk here is that the Texans could surprise everyone and put up a stronger fight than expected. Still, with Bowling Green playing at home and their offense looking good, this bet has a strong chance to pay off. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.93 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Bowling Green Falcons to Win (-135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Bowling Green Falcons are sitting at -135 to win against Tarleton State Texans, which suggests they have a good shot at pulling off the victory. Our numbers show that Bowling Green is a strong favorite, thanks to their solid offense and better overall performance this season. They have been scoring well, while the Texans have struggled to keep up on defense. The most concrete risk here is that both teams are closely matched in some areas, making it possible for Tarleton State to surprise. This could be a great pick for those looking to back a team that's likely to win. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.41 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Bowling Green Falcons v Tarleton State Texans. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article