Here are our Tennis picks for Thursday 3 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo: Alexei Popyrin to win the match, priced at +145 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo: Alexei Popyrin to win the match (+145)

Odds available at betrivers at time of publishing

Alexei Popyrin faces Alejandro Tabilo at US Open on Thursday 3 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Alexei Popyrin wins the match. It was priced at +145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Popyrin's recent form showcases a solid 60% win rate over his last five matches, and he exhibits strong serving metrics on hard courts, with a first serve percentage of 64.4% and winning 74.1% of first serve points. His overall serve points won stands at 70.8%, outperforming Tabilo, who has a lower serve points won rate of 69.8%. Additionally, Popyrin's ability to save break points at 50% mirrors Tabilo’s struggles, who achieves only 25%. Popyrin’s ace rate (14.4%) also surpasses Tabilo's (9.3%), giving him a crucial advantage in pressure situations. Given these key performance indicators and a favorable head-to-head context on hard courts, Popyrin is poised to capitalize and secure the upset.

Benjamin Bonzi vs Ignacio Buse: Ignacio Buse to win the match (-120)

Odds available at betrivers at time of publishing

Benjamin Bonzi faces Ignacio Buse at US Open on Thursday 3 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Ignacio Buse wins the match. It was priced at -120 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Over their last five matches, Buse has demonstrated a solid first-serve percentage of 65.8% and won 70.2% of his first-serve points, indicating effective serving under pressure. His second-serve performance is also strong, with 60.9% points won. Conversely, Bonzi's recent form shows a win rate of just 10% in his last five matches, with his serve points won (66.1%) trailing Buse. Additionally, Buse's opponents have struggled against him, with a high first-serve success rate of 72.3%, highlighting vulnerability in Bonzi’s return game. Buse's higher break point save percentage (46.9%) compared to Bonzi’s weaker overall metrics further reinforces this pick, making him a solid choice in this matchup.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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