Here are our Tennis picks for Friday 4 September 2026. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea: Arthur Gea to win the match, priced at +134 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea: Arthur Gea to win the match (+134)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Michael Zheng faces Arthur Gea at US Open on Saturday 5 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Arthur Gea wins the match. It was priced at +134 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.40 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Arthur Gea is a strong value pick at 2.34 due to his impressive recent form and superior serve performance relative to Michael Zheng. In his last five matches, Gea boasts a remarkable win rate of 80%, indicating solid competitive form. While specific serve metrics are missing, Gea's ability to perform under pressure is reinforced by his opponent's average first-serve percentage of only 59.4% and a break point save rate of 50%. This context suggests Gea can exploit Zheng’s vulnerabilities effectively. Moreover, Gea's recent form shows an upward trajectory, winning 13 out of 21 matches, compared to Zheng’s less consistent play. The combination of Gea's strong form and his opponent's serving weaknesses makes this bet compelling.

Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng: Madison Keys to win the match (-149)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Madison Keys faces Qinwen Zheng at US Open on Saturday 5 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Madison Keys wins the match. It was priced at -149 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.70 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Keys boasts a remarkable form win rate of 80% over her last five matches, indicating consistent success. In contrast, Zheng's performance metrics show vulnerabilities, particularly with her opponent's first serve winning 64% of points, coupled with a 76% break point save rate. This suggests that Zheng struggles under pressure, which is critical on a hard surface like the US Open. Keys’ high win rate and her ability to capitalize on Zheng's weaknesses—specifically, her opponent's lower second serve points won (43%)—make her a compelling pick. Additionally, playing on home soil provides Keys with a psychological advantage. Overall, her superior recent form and the ability to exploit Zheng's serve issues support a confident wager on Keys.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article