Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Sunday 04/19 (7-Leg) : High Probability Plays

Cade Cunningham has found his groove at home, but the numbers suggest a strong case for him to fall short of the 40.5 points and assists mark against the visiting Orlando Magic. Sure, he's averaging 18.4 points and 11.6 assists in his last five home games, but let's not forget: he's also been held to just 14.6 points and 8 assists overall in his last five outings. What's more, his previous matchups against Orlando show he's only crossed the 30-point threshold once, averaging 26.4 points and 8.2 assists at home. With his recent performance hitting the under in four straight games, it's hard to ignore that trend. Given the implied probability of 75.2% for him to stay below this mark, it feels like a smart move to bank on Cunningham not hitting that lofty total this Sunday.

Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons) Under 30.5 Points (-312)

As the Pistons prepare to host the Magic, all signs point to Cade Cunningham being hard-pressed to top 30.5 points. Despite his impressive scoring ability, recent trends tell a different story. Over the last five games, he's averaged a modest 14.6 points overall, and even at home, that number only climbs to 18.4. Facing the Magic, who have been a tough defensive test, Cunningham's scoring against them has dipped to an average of 26.4 points at home. What's more telling is his recent performance-he's hit the under in all four of his last games, and when playing at home, he hasn't exceeded this threshold in 16 straight outings. With an expected stat value of just 20.5 and an implied probability of 75.8%, it seems the smart money is on Cunningham to fall short of that lofty 30.5 mark.

Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons) Under 14.5 Rebounds (-455)

As Jalen Duren steps onto the court against the Orlando Magic, expectations might run high, but let's take a closer look. The young big man has been solid, averaging around 11.2 rebounds at home recently. However, facing the Magic, his numbers suggest a different story. Over their last five encounters, he's averaged just 10.4 boards against this team, and he's been held under the 14.5 mark consistently. In fact, Duren's hit rate for this prop is eerily perfect but tends to skew lower when matched up with Orlando. With an expected stat value of just 10.43 rebounds, backing the under feels smart. Given his recent home performances and matchup dynamics, we're leaning towards Duren falling short of that 14.5 threshold. It's a game of adjustments, and he's due for a reality check against a Magic team that's been tough on the glass.

Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons) Under 46.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-263)

When the Detroit Pistons host the Orlando Magic, all eyes will be on Cade Cunningham, but I'm leaning toward the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 46.5. Sure, he's been a standout at home, averaging 18.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 11.6 assists over his last five games in Detroit. However, against the Magic, his performance dips; he averages just 26.4 points at home against them, with a notable decline in overall contributions.Cade's last five outings show a modest average of 14.6 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists, translating to a total around 34.09-well below that 46.5 mark. With a flawless 16-for-16 hit rate on unders, it's clear he's been more of a facilitator than a scorer lately. Given the matchup and his recent form, taking the under feels like a smart play here.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) Under 14.5 Rebounds (-400)

As the Spurs gear up to face the Trail Blazers, all eyes are on Victor Wembanyama, but this might be a perfect spot to target the under on his rebounding total of 14.5. Despite his towering presence, Wembanyama has averaged a solid 14 boards in his last five outings, yet his home numbers dip to around 10.8. That's a notable trend, especially considering he's faced the Blazers before, pulling down an average of just 8 rebounds against them at home. To add some context, he's hit the under in 8 of his last 9 games at the AT&T Center. With an expected stat value of 10.67 and an implied probability of 80% on this under, it seems the odds are in our favor to see him fall short of that 14.5 mark. Keep an eye on this one; the numbers suggest a tighter performance from Wembanyama tonight.

Jerami Grant (Portland Trail Blazers) Over 8.5 Points (-233)

When the Portland Trail Blazers take the court against the San Antonio Spurs, keep a close eye on Jerami Grant. He's been a scoring machine lately, averaging 17.4 points over his last five games and hitting the over in all four of his last outings. What's even more impressive is his performance on the road, where he's managed to average 16.4 points-well above the 8.5 mark we're targeting here. In fact, Grant has hit over this total in 12 of his last 14 away games. The Spurs' defense has struggled to contain versatile scorers, and with Grant's ability to create his own shot, he's poised to exploit those weaknesses. With an expected stat value of 17.57 and a solid hit rate against the Spurs, this feels like a goldmine waiting to be tapped. It's hard to see him not reaching double digits in this matchup.