Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Saturday 04/18 (5-Leg) Featuring Moussa Diabate!: High Probability Plays

As the Phoenix Suns gear up to face the Golden State Warriors, all eyes will be on Jalen Green, but I'm leaning towards the under on his points total, set at 24.5. While Green has shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends suggest he might struggle to hit that mark. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 20 points, and against the Warriors, that number dips significantly to around 9.6 points historically. Even at home, where he averages 20.4 points, his recent performance against this opponent has been underwhelming, with a mere 14.6 points per game. The Suns have a robust home hit rate, with Green failing to surpass this total in 14 of his last 17 games at home. With an implied probability of 73.5% favoring the under, it's hard to envision him breaking through the 24.5 barrier in this matchup.

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Under 7.5 Assists (-244)

As the Warriors gear up to face the Suns, it's worth noting that Draymond Green's assist numbers tend to take a dip when he's on the road. While he's been known for playmaking magic, his recent averages tell a different story. Over his last five games, he's clocked in at about 6.6 assists away from home, well below the 7.5 threshold. Against the Suns, that number shrinks even further, with just 3.4 assists in their last encounters.Moreover, let's consider the pressure of playing in Phoenix, where defenses tighten up. Green's overall hit rate shows he's only surpassed 7.5 assists in three of his last four games, and he's maintained a solid 13 out of 17 on the road hitting under that mark. With the Suns' defense focused on limiting his contributions, taking the under on Green's assists feels like a solid play in this matchup.

Desmond Bane (Orlando Magic) Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-263)

As the Orlando Magic host the Charlotte Hornets, targeting Desmond Bane for an under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 32.5 feels like a savvy move. Over his last five games, Bane has averaged just 17.4 points with a modest 2.6 rebounds and 3 assists, putting him well below this threshold. At home, he's slightly better but still averages 20.2 points and only 3.6 assists. Against the Hornets, he's been even less explosive, averaging 16.2 points and 3.6 assists at home. With a recent overall hit rate of 80% for this prop and a staggering 100% at home over the last nine games, the numbers strongly suggest he'll struggle to reach that lofty total. Given the way he's been trending, betting the under on Bane's production seems like a solid play for this matchup.

Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-250)

As the Golden State Warriors head to Phoenix, all eyes will be on Gui Santos, but we're leaning towards the Under on his points and rebounds total of 21.5. The numbers tell a compelling story: Santos has averaged just 14.8 points and 4.8 rebounds over his last five games, and those figures dip to 11.8 points and 6.4 boards when he's on the road. Against the Suns, he's averaged merely 7.2 points and 4.2 rebounds in recent matchups, highlighting the challenge he faces. With his away hit rate showing just 6 out of 8 games hitting the Under, it's clear Santos often struggles when away from home. Given the Suns' defensive prowess and the pressure of this matchup, it seems likely Santos will fall short of that 21.5 mark, making the Under a savvy play.