Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Friday 04/17 (5-Leg) Featuring Moussa Diabate!: Calculated Risk, High Reward

As the Golden State Warriors head into Phoenix, all eyes will be on Draymond Green and his assists total. The sharp play here is betting the under on his assists at 7.5. While Green has averaged a solid 8 assists over his last five games, the context of this matchup tells a different story. When playing away, his average dips to 6.6, and against the Suns, he's been limited to just 3.4 assists in their recent encounters. Furthermore, despite his playmaking prowess, he's hit the under in 13 of his last 17 away games, showcasing a trend that's hard to ignore. With the Suns' defense tightening up and Green likely focusing more on facilitating the offense than racking up assists, this under feels like a sound choice. Expect a game where he plays a key role, but that role doesn't translate to high assist totals.

Jalen Green (Phoenix Suns) Under 22.5 Points (-233)

When the Phoenix Suns take the court against the Golden State Warriors, all eyes will be on Jalen Green. However, betting on him to go over 22.5 points might be a gamble you want to rethink. Recent trends reveal that Green has averaged just 20 points over his last five games, and even more striking, he's struggled against the Warriors in particular, putting up only 9.6 points in their last encounters, with a slightly better 14.6 at home. Given that he's hit the under in 12 of his last 17 home games, it's clear the numbers are leaning toward a quieter night. With an expected stat value of just 14.91, this matchup suggests that Green may find it tough to break through the Warriors' defense. The implied probability of 69.9% underlines this notion. So, targeting the under on his points seems like a savvy play here.

Desmond Bane (Orlando Magic) Under 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-233)

As the Orlando Magic gear up to face the Charlotte Hornets, all eyes will be on Desmond Bane. However, betting the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 30.5 makes sense given the recent numbers. Over his last five games, Bane has averaged a modest 17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3 assists-well below the required threshold. When we zoom in on his home performances, he's been slightly better but still averages just 20.2 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists. The matchup against Charlotte isn't particularly favorable either; historically, Bane has logged just 16.2 points and 3.6 assists when playing at home against them. With a hit rate of 4 out of his last 5 games under this line and a robust trend suggesting he won't hit 30.5, the under is a smart play here.

Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors) Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-227)

As the Golden State Warriors gear up to face the Phoenix Suns, all eyes will be on Gui Santos, but not for the reasons you might expect. With a points and rebounds line set at 20.5, there's a compelling case for taking the under. Over his last five games, Santos has averaged just 14.8 points and 4.8 rebounds, which translates to around 19.6 combined-well below the mark we're targeting. In away games, his numbers dip even further, where he's only managed 11.8 points and 6.4 rebounds. Against the Suns, he's averaged a mere 7.2 points, and when playing in their arena, that drops to 8.2. With a hit rate of only 3 out of his last 4 outings and 6 of 8 on the road, it's hard to see him surpassing that 20.5 threshold. Betting the under feels like a smart play here