Kevin Gausman (TOR) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-370)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Kevin Gausman for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is statistically backed by his recent performance. Gausman's last five games show an average of 1.2 walks allowed, both overall and at home. This is more than double the line set at 0.5, indicating a strong likelihood of surpassing it. Additionally, when facing the Tampa Bay Rays, his average walks allowed is still above the line at 0.8. Despite a slightly lower average innings pitched against this team (5.4), this is still ample opportunity for a walk to occur. Gausman's consistency in allowing at least one walk per game, as evidenced by his current hit streaks, further supports this bet. Therefore, the data suggests a strong probability of Gausman allowing at least one walk in the game.

Ernie Clement (TOR) Under 1.5 Hits (-256)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 1.5 bet for Ernie Clement in the Batter Hits market is a good choice considering his recent performance data. His last five games' batting average is just 0.8 hits, falling under the line of 1.5. This average drops even lower to 0.6 hits when playing at home. Even when facing the Tampa Bay Rays, his hit average remains under the line at 0.8. Despite a current overall hit streak of 3, his home hit streak is only at 2, suggesting less consistency in home games. Furthermore, his plate appearances (PA) are relatively low, averaging 2.4 overall and 1.8 at home, limiting his opportunities to hit. His higher PA average against the Rays (3.4) hasn't translated into more hits, reinforcing the under 1.5 bet choice.

George Springer (TOR) Under 1.5 Hits (-250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on George Springer for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is driven by his recent performance data. His average hits, both overall and at home, sit at 0.8, well below the line of 1.5. Even more telling, his average hits against the Tampa Bay Rays, the opposing team, is 0, suggesting he struggles against their pitching. His Plate Appearances (PA) averages also indicate limited opportunities to exceed the 1.5 hits line, with 4.4 overall and 3.8 at home. Despite current hit streaks, the low hit averages against this specific opponent and in general make the Under 1.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-333)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 5.5' for the Total Runs is backed by the combined offensive and defensive stats of both teams. The Blue Jays have been scoring an average of 3 runs at home, while the Rays average 2.2 runs overall. Defensively, the Blue Jays have allowed an average of 3.8 runs at home, while the Rays have allowed an average of 4 runs away. This suggests a combined average of at least 6.8 runs per game, exceeding the line of 5.5. Additionally, both teams have decent batting averages, with the Blue Jays averaging 7.2 hits at home and the Rays 5.2 away, which could contribute to a higher score. This, coupled with the model prediction of 8.32 total runs, makes the 'Over 5.5' bet a solid choice.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-128)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 7.5' total runs for the Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays game is driven by the recent performance of both teams. Despite the Blue Jays' recent overall record, they have performed better at home, scoring an average of 3 runs. The Rays, while struggling on the road, have shown a capacity to contribute to the total, averaging 2.2 runs overall in their last five games. In addition, both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with the Blue Jays allowing an average of 3.8 runs at home and the Rays allowing 4 runs away. Considering these factors, along with the teams' batting averages and the model prediction of 8.32, it's statistically likely that the combined score will exceed 7.5 runs.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 6.5' for the Total Runs in the Blue Jays vs Rays game is a good choice based on both teams' recent performance data. Despite relatively low scoring averages recently (1.8 runs for Blue Jays and 2.2 for Rays), the key factor is the number of runs allowed by both teams. The Blue Jays have been allowing an average of 4.6 runs overall and 3.8 at home, while the Rays have allowed 4.8 runs overall and 4 runs away. This suggests a higher likelihood of runs being scored by both sides. Furthermore, the model prediction of 8.32 runs exceeds the line of 6.5, reinforcing the potential for a higher-scoring game. Therefore, the 'Over 6.5' bet is a solid choice based on the teams' defensive vulnerabilities and the model's prediction.

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