Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) Under 21.5 Disposals (-103)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jai Newcombe is favored to go Under 21.5 disposals based on his recent form. Despite a solid L5 average of 16.8 disposals, his historical performance against Collingwood (24 vs. 25.3 disposals) suggests a potential dip. With a 19.5% model edge, Newcombe's recent turnover rate of 3.2 per game could impact his total disposals. His L5 contested possessions of 8.6 and lower kick average at home (6.8) further support this under bet. Additionally, his 77.2% disposal efficiency may not be enough to reach the 21.5 line, especially with an average of 3.2 turnovers per game. Bet on Newcombe to stay under 21.5 disposals in this matchup.

Zak Jones (St Kilda) Under 20.5 Disposals (-120)

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Zak Jones is poised to go under 20.5 disposals due to his recent away form averaging 14.4 disposals. Facing Richmond, where he averages 15 disposals in their last five encounters, further supports this bet. Although Jones has a solid contested possessions average, his turnover rate of 2.4 per game may limit his overall disposals. With a model predicting 17.3 disposals and a 19.4% edge, the statistical data aligns with choosing the under. Despite his recent hit streak, the combination of his historical performance against Richmond and his average disposals suggests a lower count in this upcoming away fixture at the MCG.

Touk Miller (Gold Coast SUNS) Under 25.5 Disposals (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Touk Miller, despite averaging 28.2 disposals in his last five away games, faces Carlton, where he historically averages 21 disposals. With a model predicting him to gather 22.2 disposals and a 19.2% edge towards the under, his recent stats justify this bet. Miller's 70.8% disposalefficiency and 400.6 metres gained also suggest he may not reach the 25.5 mark. His hit rate streak of 2/3 in away games and 4/4 overall further supports this under bet. Expect Miller to fall short of the line due to his historical performance against Carlton and the model's insights.

Stephen Coniglio (GWS GIANTS) Under 18.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Stephen Coniglio's recent stats and model insights support betting on him to go Under 18.5 disposals. Despite a solid L5 average of 16.8 disposals in home games, his L5 against this opponent is notably lower at 30 disposals. The model predicting 15.5 disposals, with a 5 SD, indicates a favorable 18.8% edge. Coniglio's L5 metrics like contested possessions (7.4), kicks (10.4), and turnovers (3.2) suggest potential struggles reaching the line against North Melbourne. His consistent home performance and recent hit streaks add confidence to this under bet, aligning with his lower-end disposal range in this matchup.

Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 26.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matt Rowell is poised to shine against Carlton. With a model predicting 29.5 disposals, his recent form supports this. In his last 5 away games, Rowell has averaged 25.4 disposals, exceeding the set line of 26.5. His consistent contested possessions (13.2 avg), high disposal efficiency (71.0%), and impressive metres gained (408.6 avg) indicate he can meet this mark. Facing Carlton, he historically averages 18 disposals, and overall, he maintains a strong average of 28.2 disposals. With a current hit streak of 4 and solid form, Rowell is likely to surpass 26.5 disposals in this matchup, making the over a favorable bet.

Matt Rowell (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 24.5 Disposals (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matt Rowell is poised to shine against Carlton at Marvel Stadium based on his recent form. With an impressive L5 average of 25.4 disposals in away games, Rowell's consistency and high disposalefficiency of 71.0% indicate he's likely to exceed the line of 24.5 set by sportsbet. His L5 averages in contestedpossessions and kicks also bode well for a strong performance. Additionally, his L5 vs. Opponent averages of 18 and 18.8 disposals suggest he steps up his game against Carlton. With an overall hit rate of 4/4 and a current hit streak of 1 away game and 4 overall, Rowell's momentum and statistical edge make the Over 24.5 disposals bet a compelling choice with a 16.5% model edge.

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