On Sunday 9 August 2026, Steven Asplund takes on Guilherme Pat in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 1.5 Total Rounds, priced at +192 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 1.5 Total Rounds (+192)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

In the UFC fight between Steven Asplund and Guilherme Pat, I'm picking the total rounds to go under 1.5. Both fighters have aggressive styles, with a focus on finishing their opponents quickly. Asplund is known for his striking, while Pat has a strong grappling game, which could lead to a quick end. Our numbers show there's a good chance this fight won't last long, and it's possible we could see a finish in the first round. Remember, fights can be unpredictable, but I think this one could be over sooner rather than later. It was priced at +192 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.20 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Steven Asplund -5.5 on the Line (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Steven Asplund takes on Guilherme Pat in the UFC on Sunday 9 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Steven Asplund -5.5 on the Line. That is a rounds handicap bet. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Amanda Lemos: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 14% of career wins came by knockout, 145 days since the last fight
  • Alexia Thainara: last five W-W-W-W, on a 4-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 131 days since the last fight
  • Bruno Lopes: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 131 days since the last fight
  • Diyar Nurgozhay: last five W-L-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 152 days since the last fight
  • Juliana Miller: last five L-W-L-L-W, dropped the last 1, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 166 days since the last fight
  • Ravena Oliveira: last five L-L-L, dropped the last 3, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 138 days since the last fight
  • Mateusz Gamrot: last five W-L-W-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 117 days since the last fight
  • Quillan Salkilld: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 6-fight win streak, 23% of career wins came by knockout, 96 days since the last fight
  • Miles Johns: last five L-L-L-W-W, dropped the last 3, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 271 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Steven Asplund v Guilherme Pat. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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