Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-2500)

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Mitch Keller's recent performance suggests a strong probability of allowing more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game. His last five games show an average of 5.6 hits allowed overall, and 5.8 hits allowed at home. Even when focusing on his performance against the Marlins, the average remains high at 5.4 hits. Furthermore, his innings pitched and outs averages align with these hit rates, indicating that he typically stays in the game long enough to allow this number of hits. Keller's current hit streak, standing at 14 overall and 6 at home, further underlines his tendency to allow hits. Therefore, based on these patterns, betting on Keller to allow over 2.5 hits in the game against the Marlins is a data-supported choice.

Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-833)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Mitch Keller's performance data strongly supports the bet for over 2.5 strikeouts. Over his last five games, Keller's overall strikeout average is 4, significantly higher than the betting line of 2.5. This trend is even more pronounced in home games, where his strikeout average rises to 4.4 and 7 in the last five games. Furthermore, when facing the Miami Marlins, his strikeout average increases to 4.8. Keller's innings pitched (IP) averages also suggest he typically plays sufficiently long to achieve more than 2.5 strikeouts. His current overall and home hit streaks further demonstrate his consistent performance. Therefore, based on Keller's recent performance and his specific record against the Marlins, the bet for over 2.5 strikeouts is a sound choice.

Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-357)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Mitch Keller's performance data shows a strong propensity for allowing walks, making the Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed a sound bet. Keller's last five games have seen an average of 2 walks allowed overall, and 2.2 walks at home games, well above the bet line of 0.5. Even when facing the Marlins, his average walks allowed is 0.6, still higher than the bet line. Furthermore, Keller's innings pitched and outs averages do not significantly exceed the league average, suggesting he is not exceptionally efficient at avoiding walks. His current overall and home hit streaks of 8 and 2 respectively further indicate a tendency for batters to connect with his pitches. In sum, given Keller's consistent history of allowing walks, betting Over 0.5 on Pitcher Walks Allowed is a statistically justified choice.

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