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MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Toronto Blue Jays
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies and backs Over 5.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $171.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 5.5 total runs
Over 5.5 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$17.09Best price-141
Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win78.8%
The price says58.5%

The model graded 70 markets for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $171 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 1:35 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 5.5 High79% chance -141
Spread Members only Long-shot36% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean50% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean48% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only High64% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean42% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean59% chance Members
Total Runs Members only High72% chance Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 13 props Highup to 88% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 74% Members
Batter - Walks × 8 props Highup to 95% Members
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 92% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 6 props Highup to 89% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies last met on Sun 9 Aug 2026: Philadelphia Phillies won 7-6. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
5.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,149+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Toronto Blue JaysSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Dylan Cease SPOut
  • Anthony Santander RFOut
  • Shane Bieber SPOut
  • Jameson Taillon SPOut
  • Rudy Martin Jr. RFOut
  • Cody Ponce SPOut
  • Patrick Corbin SPOut
  • Jonatan Clase LFOut
  • Yimi Garcia RPOut
  • Jake Bloss SPOut
  • Addison Barger RFOut
  • Jose Berrios SPOut
  • Bowden Francis SPOut

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut
Availability updated Sep 25, 9:03PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Luis Arraez MIN Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Shane Bieber Pitcher - Walks
Kyle Schwarber PHI Batter - Walks
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Myles Straw CLE Batter - Singles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Toronto Blue Jays L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Toronto Blue Jays have won 2 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome
Toronto Blue Jays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–1CINHome
L1–5CINHome
W6–5CINHome
L2–4BALAway
L2–4BALAway

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 2.4 runs per game (3-2) while Toronto Blue Jays are at 1.8 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 1.4 for Toronto Blue Jays.

2.4
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
1.8
Toronto Blue Jays runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue Jays
Runs / game2.41.8
Hits / game4.83.8
Home runs / game0.20.2
Walks drawn / game1.01.0
Batter K / game1.82.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.21.4
Pitching K / game2.02.0
Walks allowed / game1.63.0
L5 record3-23-2

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 4, Toronto Blue Jays won 6.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue JaysWinner
Aug 976Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 857Toronto Blue Jays
Aug 745Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 1074Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 923Toronto Blue Jays
Jun 852Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 1285Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 701Toronto Blue Jays
Feb 2857Toronto Blue Jays
Feb 2103Toronto Blue Jays

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Toronto Blue Jays
PlayerStatus
Dylan Cease SPOUT
Anthony Santander RFOUT
Shane Bieber SPOUT
Jameson Taillon SPOUT
Rudy Martin Jr. RFOUT
Cody Ponce SPOUT
Patrick Corbin SPOUT
Jonatan Clase LFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for August 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 10, 2026 our model has run Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays: Under 13 Total Runs (-345), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 2 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Jays vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Jays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 9 August 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies head-to-head record

Final scores · 42 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 24–17 across the last 42 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 9 Aug 2026, Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies: the Phillies won 7-6.

DateGameScoreWinner
9 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies7–6Philadelphia Phillies
8 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies5–7Toronto Blue Jays
7 Aug 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies4–5Toronto Blue Jays
10 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays4–7Philadelphia Phillies
9 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays3–2Toronto Blue Jays
8 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays2–5Philadelphia Phillies
12 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies8–5Philadelphia Phillies
7 Mar 2026Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies0–1Toronto Blue Jays
28 Feb 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays7–5Toronto Blue Jays
21 Feb 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays3–0Toronto Blue Jays

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 42 meetings on file.

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