Framber Valdez (HOU) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-1000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Framber Valdez for Over 3.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts (Alternate) market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Valdez has averaged 5.2 strikeouts overall and 6.8 strikeouts in away games, both of which exceed the line of 3.5. Additionally, his innings pitched and outs averages are consistently high, indicating he tends to stay in games for a significant amount of time and therefore has more opportunities for strikeouts. Even when specifically facing the Boston Red Sox, Valdez's strikeout average is 5, still above the line. Despite his current hit streak being at zero, his historical performance suggests a high probability of achieving over 3.5 strikeouts in the upcoming game.

Framber Valdez (HOU) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-1111)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Framber Valdez for Over 0.5 in the Pitcher Walks Allowed market is based on his historical performance data. Valdez's average walks allowed over his last five games is 2.2, well over the line of 0.5. This trend continues in away games, where he averages 1.2 walks. Despite his performance against the Red Sox specifically being better, with no walks allowed in the last five games, the overall and away game averages suggest a higher likelihood of at least one walk. Additionally, Valdez's current hit streak of 14 games, both overall and away, indicates a pattern of allowing hits, which can increase the chance of walks. Thus, the data suggests that Valdez is likely to allow at least one walk in the upcoming game against the Red Sox.

Romy Gonzalez (BOS) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-714)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Romy Gonzalez for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Gonzalez has not recorded any stolen bases, whether playing at home or against the Houston Astros. His overall and home hit streaks are impressive, but these do not translate into stolen bases. Moreover, there have been no instances of him being caught stealing (Cs), indicating that he is not even attempting to steal bases. Therefore, despite his strong hitting performance, his lack of stolen base attempts and successes make the Under 0.5 bet a logical choice. This is further supported by the model's implied probability of 87.7%, suggesting a high likelihood of this outcome.

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