Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Thursday 04/09 (7-Leg) Featuring Nikola Jokic!: High Probability Plays

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, who's been a playmaking powerhouse. However, in this matchup, the under on his assists is looking particularly appealing. While Jokic has been averaging 11.6 assists across his last five games, he's only managed to dish out 10.4 assists against the Grizzlies at home. Moreover, the Grizzlies have proven to be pesky defensively, limiting opposing facilitators. With an expected assist stat of just 8.68, it seems Jokic might face a tougher time threading those signature passes this game. The high implied probability of 75.8% for him to stay under 12.5 assists suggests a solid chance to capitalize on this trend. So, while Jokic dazzles on the court, don't be surprised if his assist total falls below the lofty mark set for this game.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 41.5 Points + Assists (-345)

In tonight's clash between the Suns and Mavericks, targeting Cooper Flagg for under 41.5 combined points and assists feels like the smart move. While Flagg has shown flashes of brilliance lately, averaging over 30 points in his last five games, the away splits tell a different story. On the road, his numbers dip to about 23 points and 4.4 assists per game, offering a stark contrast to his home performances. Against the Mavericks, he's averaged just 21.5 points and 4 assists in their last matchups. If we dig deeper, his away games against Dallas specifically reveal a trend-he's only managed 27 points and 2 assists on average. With a hit rate of 18 out of 20 overall, and an eye-popping perfect 20 for 20 when playing away, it seems prudent to lean toward the under here. Sometimes, less really is more, especially in a hostile environment.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-323)

When it comes to Cooper Flagg in this matchup against the Suns, the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists at 48.5 feels like the smart play. Sure, Flagg has displayed flashes of brilliance, averaging just over 30 points in his last five games, but let's not overlook his away performances. On the road, he's been a bit more subdued, netting only 23 points per game and averaging 4.4 assists. The Mavericks present a unique challenge, and historically, Flagg's numbers dip when he faces them, averaging just 21.5 points in their last five encounters. With a hit rate of 18 out of 20 on the under and a perfect 13-for-13 away from home, it's clear he struggles to maintain that scoring prowess outside friendly confines. All signs point to Flagg not exceeding that 48.5 mark, making this bet worth considering.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 43.5 Points + Rebounds (-345)

When you look at Cooper Flagg's recent performance, especially on the road, the case for taking the under on his combined points and rebounds at 43.5 becomes compelling. Over his last five games, he's averaging 30.4 points and 7.4 rebounds, but away from home, those numbers dip to 23 points and 7.4 rebounds. Against the Mavericks, he's managed only 21.5 points on average, and when playing in Dallas, that figure slides to 27. Now let's talk consistency. Flagg has hit the under in an impressive 18 of his last 20 games, and he hasn't missed in his last 13 on the road. With the Suns' defense tightening up, expect Flagg to struggle to hit that lofty mark. Given the 77.5% implied probability, this bet is not just a hunch; it's backed by a solid track record.

Jonathan Kuminga (Atlanta Hawks) Under 20.5 Points (-106)

When the Cavaliers face the Hawks, Jonathan Kuminga is a name to watch, but not necessarily for scoring fireworks. With a points line set at 20.5, the trend suggests that a bet on the under is a savvy move. In his last five games, Kuminga has averaged just 8.4 points overall and a slightly better 10.2 on the road. Historically, he's struggled against the Hawks, averaging only 10 points in their previous matchups while boasting a 13-game streak of hitting the under. Kuminga's role in the offense fluctuates, and with the Cavaliers' defensive prowess, it's likely he won't reach that 20-point mark. Given that his expected stat value hovers around 10.39, the under looks not just appealing but strategically sound. In a game where every possession counts, don't expect Kuminga to be the one lighting up the scoreboard.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 34.5 Points (-278)

In this matchup between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks, targeting Cooper Flagg for under 34.5 points feels like a smart play. Sure, Flagg has been a scoring machine lately, averaging 30.4 points over his last five games. However, when we dive into his away performance, the numbers tell a different story. He's only putting up about 23 points in away games, and against the Mavericks, his average dips to around 21.5. With his recent away games showing a perfect hit rate, it's clear that he's been less of a scoring threat on the road. Plus, facing the Mavericks' defense, which has been stingy lately, makes it even tougher for him to reach those lofty totals. So, with an expected stat value closer to 25.17, leaning into the under seems not just reasonable but quite savvy.