Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Thursday 04/09 (7-Leg) Featuring Nikola Jokic!: Calculated Risk, High Reward

When it comes to Cooper Flagg and the upcoming matchup against the Mavericks, the under on 41.5 points plus assists feels like a savvy play. Sure, Flagg has shown flashes of brilliance, averaging 30.4 points and 3.6 assists over his last five games. But let's not ignore the nuances: on the road, those numbers dip to 23 points and 4.4 assists. Against the Mavericks specifically, his averages in recent contests have been even lower-21.5 points and just 4 assists. Historically, Flagg has thrived at home, but away from familiar surroundings, he's been less prolific. With a staggering hit rate of 20/20 for the under while on the road, it's clear he's been contained outside his comfort zone. Given the stakes and the defensive intensity we expect from Dallas, betting the under on Flagg feels not just reasonable, but almost inevitable.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-345)

As the Dallas Mavericks gear up to face the Phoenix Suns, all eyes will be on Cooper Flagg, but betting on him to go over 48.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists feels like a stretch. Flagg's recent form shows he's averaging 30.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over the last five games, which totals just over 41. That's a solid number, but when you dive into his away performances, the averages dip-23 points and 4.4 assists, while rebounds remain steady at 7.4. Against the Suns, he's managed just 21.5 points per game, and on the road, that dips to 27. Plus, he's hit the under in 13 straight away games. With an expected stat value of 32.6 and a robust hit rate of 18 out of 20 recently, it's hard to see him breaking through that 48.5 barrier

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 26.5 Rebounds + Assists (-270)

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to host the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes are on Nikola Jokic. While he's undoubtedly a force on the court, this matchup presents a compelling case for taking the under on his rebounds and assists total of 26.5. Sure, Jokic has been a double-double machine lately, averaging 13.8 rebounds and 11.6 assists over his last five. But let's not forget his past performances against Memphis; he's averaged 14 rebounds and 10.8 assists in their recent meetings. However, Jokic's home stats against the Grizzlies tell a different story, with averages slightly dipping to 14.8 rebounds and 10.4 assists. With the Nuggets' home hit rate showing he's gone under this total in 13 of his last 17 games, it seems like the perfect moment to grab the under. Don't let the star power fool you-this could be a night where he shines less in the

Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks) Under 20.5 Rebounds + Assists (-278)

As the Hawks gear up to face the Cavaliers, Jalen Johnson's role could be pivotal, but don't expect fireworks in the rebounds and assists department. The numbers paint a compelling picture for the under on his combined total of 20.5. While Johnson has been solid lately, averaging 10.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists over his last five games, his away numbers dip to just 8.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists. Against the Cavaliers, he's averaged only 7.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists, which puts him well under our target. To add to the narrative, he's hit the under in 8 of his last 9 outings, a trend that's hard to ignore. With a strong implied probability of 73.5%, this prop feels like a safe bet as Johnson navigates a tough Cleveland defense on the road.

Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks) Under 41.5 Points + Rebounds (-303)

As the Mavericks gear up to face the Suns, all eyes will be on Cooper Flagg, but the smart play is taking the under on his combined points and rebounds at 41.5. Despite his impressive averages, Flagg's recent away performances reveal a different story. He's been scoring just 23 points on the road, and his rebound numbers hover around five. When you take into account that he only managed 27 points against the Mavericks in their last encounter, expecting him to significantly exceed these thresholds seems overly ambitious. With a remarkable 13-for-13 record on hitting the under in his last away games, Flagg has consistently fallen short when it matters. The Mavericks' defense has a knack for stifling opponents, and it's likely they'll keep Flagg in check again. With an expected stat value of just 29.61, it's hard to see him crossing that 41.5 barrier.

Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons) Over 14.5 Points (-172)

When the Detroit Pistons host the Milwaukee Bucks, all eyes should be on Cade Cunningham, especially when it comes to his scoring. With a current average of 19 points at home and a remarkable 25.6 against the Bucks over the last five matchups, Cunningham has consistently found ways to light up the scoreboard. His recent form is equally impressive; he has eclipsed the 14.5 mark in 13 of his last 16 games, making this bet feel more like a formality than a gamble. Playing at home only enhances his chances, as he's converted 16 of his last 20 games in Detroit into point-scoring performances fitting of a star. The Pistons need him to step up, and with the crowd backing him, Cunningham is poised to take full advantage. Betting the over on his points feels like the smart play in what promises to be an electrifying matchup.