Today's Tennis Best Bets - Our Top 6 Picks

Here are our Tennis picks for Tuesday 4 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor: Lorenzo Sonego to win the match, priced at +106 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor: Lorenzo Sonego to win the match (+106)

Lorenzo Sonego faces Tallon Griekspoor at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Lorenzo Sonego wins the match. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Lorenzo Sonego presents strong value at 2.06 against Tallon Griekspoor due to superior recent form and serve metrics on hard courts. Sonego's last five matches show a first serve percentage of 70.43% and a first points won rate of 74.53%, indicating effective serving under pressure. His second serve performance stands at 56.81%, complementing a solid overall serve points won rate of 69.05%. In comparison, Griekspoor’s serve metrics are slightly lower, with a first serve percentage of 64.08% and first points won at 72.73%. Both players have a similar break point save percentage (51.45% for Sonego vs. 50% for Griekspoor), but Sonego's recent form is more compelling, with a 60% win rate in his last five matches compared to Griekspoor's 50%.

Nuno Borges vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Nuno Borges to win the match (-125)

Nuno Borges faces Tomas Martin Etcheverry at Canadian Open on Wednesday 5 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Nuno Borges wins the match. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Nuno Borges presents significant value at odds of 1.8 against Tomas Martin Etcheverry, supported by strong recent form and superior serve performance on hard courts. Borges has a 60% win rate over his last five matches, demonstrating solid momentum. His hard court stats are impressive, boasting a first-serve percentage of 63.84% and winning 76.49% of first-serve points, which is crucial for maintaining service pressure. In contrast, Etcheverry has struggled with a higher opponent first-serve win rate of 74.07% and a lower BP save percentage (66.67%), indicating vulnerability under pressure. Additionally, Borges has a better second-serve performance (52.32% points won), which can exploit Etcheverry’s weaknesses.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Hamad Medjedovic: Hamad Medjedovic to win the match (-159)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo faces Hamad Medjedovic at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Hamad Medjedovic wins the match. It was priced at -159 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.30 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Medjedovic's recent hard court form shows a solid 63.4% serve points won, combined with a robust 60.5% on first serves, which positions him for effective service games. His second-serve points won at 53.2% further enhances his reliability under pressure. In contrast, Cerundolo struggles with a mere 40% win rate in his last five matches and has not demonstrated strengths in serve metrics that could challenge Medjedovic. Additionally, Medjedovic's ace rate of 11.5% indicates his ability to generate free points, while Cerundolo’s recent stats suggest a defensive vulnerability. With Medjedovic's superior recent performance and serve efficiency, he is poised to capitalize on Cerundolo's weaknesses, making him the favorable pick in this matchup.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron: Hubert Hurkacz to win the match (-164)

Hubert Hurkacz faces Marcos Giron at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Hubert Hurkacz wins the match. It was priced at -164 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.10 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Hubert Hurkacz presents strong value at 1.61 against Marcos Giron due to superior recent performance metrics on hard courts. In his last five matches, Hurkacz has demonstrated a solid first serve percentage of 62.3% and a high first-serve points won rate of 76.3%. Additionally, he boasts a robust second-serve points won rate of 51.2%, indicating effectiveness under pressure. In contrast, Giron’s serve metrics fall short, with his opponents winning 81.4% of first-serve points against him. Hurkacz's impressive break point save percentage of 127.8% further highlights his resilience in critical moments compared to Giron’s 23.7%.

Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino: Adrian Mannarino to win the match (+158)

Jacob Fearnley faces Adrian Mannarino at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Adrian Mannarino wins the match. It was priced at +158 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $25.80 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Adrian Mannarino presents significant value at 2.58 against Jacob Fearnley, supported by strong recent performance metrics on hard courts. Mannarino boasts a 64% first serve percentage and wins 72% of first serve points, indicating solid service capability. His second serve win rate of 51% further underlines his reliability under pressure. In contrast, Fearnley has shown a lack of form, with a 40% win rate in his last five matches and no reliable statistics available for his serve or return game. Mannarino's recent form also indicates a 60% win rate over the last ten matches, showcasing his consistency. Moreover, Mannarino's ability to save break points at 48% enhances his resilience in crucial moments.

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl: Daniel Merida Aguilar to win the match (-128)

Daniel Merida Aguilar faces Liam Draxl at Canadian Open on Tuesday 4 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Daniel Merida Aguilar wins the match. It was priced at -128 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.80 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Daniel Merida Aguilar presents significant value at 1.78 against Liam Draxl, especially given his strong recent form and superior serve performance on hard courts. Over the last five matches, Aguilar has achieved a first-serve percentage of 73.2% and won 56.1% of first-serve points, highlighting effective service reliability. His second-serve points won rate stands at 60%, further indicating resilience under pressure. In contrast, Draxl has yet to display any competitive serve metrics, which raises concerns about his ability to handle Aguilar's consistent pressure. Aguilar's 25% break point save rate suggests he can defend crucial points effectively.

That is the model's read on today's Tennis card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.