Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans Same Game Multi Tips & Prediction

Shai Bolton over 16.5 disposals at Optus Stadium is one of the cleaner edges on the board this week. The model projects him for 23.5 touches — a full seven above the line — with a 5.9% edge against implied odds of 86.2%. That projection is well-supported by his recent form: Bolton is averaging 24.8 disposals across his last five home games, generating 471 metres gained per outing with a disposal efficiency of 74.5%. He's hit this line in all five of those home appearances, and his overall streak sits at 10 from 10. Even against Sydney specifically, he's averaged 22 disposals at home, comfortably clearing 16.5 each time. His contested possession numbers (9.2 at home) and uncontested work (16.4) show he's finding the ball through multiple channels, not just one. The line looks stale relative to what Bolton has consistently produced at home.

Corey Wagner (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals (-769)

Corey Wagner at over 11.5 disposals is a line that looks almost comically low given what the numbers are telling us. The model projects him for 18.3 touches — a 6.8-disposal gap above the line — with a 2.9% edge over the implied 88.5% probability baked into the $1.13 price. That edge is meaningful at short odds. Wagner has cleared 11.5 in all 12 of his last 12 games overall, including a perfect 7-from-7 at home, where he's averaging 19.6 disposals. His home form specifically against Sydney sits at 20.0 disposals per game, and he's generating 421 metres gained per home outing with an elite 82.9% disposal efficiency — he's not just accumulating, he's using it. The kick-handball split (11.6 kicks, 8 handballs at home) shows genuine two-way involvement. The line is stale; the data is emphatic.