On Sunday 16 August 2026, Dustin Stoltzfus takes on Mansur Abdul-Malik in the UFC. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Mansur Abdul-Malik to Win, priced at -556 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Mansur Abdul-Malik to Win (-556)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Dustin Stoltzfus takes on Mansur Abdul-Malik in the UFC on Sunday 16 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Mansur Abdul-Malik to Win. That is a match winner bet. It was priced at -556 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.80 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mansur Abdul-Malik -7.5 on the Line (-189)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Mansur Abdul-Malik is a strong fighter known for his wrestling and grappling skills, while Dustin Stoltzfus tends to be more of a striker. For Mansur to win big, he needs to take control on the ground and keep the fight where he feels comfortable. Our numbers show that Mansur has a good chance to win by a decent margin, like around 7.5 points. This bet might be a little risky, but it seems like a smart choice given Mansur's skills and the style of both fighters. Just remember, anything can happen in a fight! It was priced at -189 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Dustin Stoltzfus: last five L-L-W-L-W, dropped the last 2, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 334 days since the last fight
  • Mansur Abdul-Malik: last five L-W-W-W-W, dropped the last 1, 27% of career wins came by knockout, 138 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Dustin Stoltzfus v Mansur Abdul-Malik. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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