On Sunday 16 August 2026, Mackenzie Dern takes on Gillian Robertson in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 4.5 Total Rounds, priced at +130 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 4.5 Total Rounds (+130)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

This fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson could be a quick one. Both fighters are known for their finishing skills, which means they often look for ways to end the fight early. Dern has strong striking and grappling, while Robertson is also a tough opponent who can submit her rivals. With both fighters eager to find a finish, it's likely we won't see all five rounds. Our numbers suggest the total combined rounds will be around two, so betting on under 4.5 rounds seems smart. Just remember, anything can happen in a fight! It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Mackenzie Dern -9.5 on the Line (+110)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Mackenzie Dern is a strong grappler who loves to take the fight to the ground, while Gillian Robertson is also skilled on the mat but tends to struggle when facing powerful opponents. For Dern to win by at least ten points, she'll need to control the fight and score more than Robertson. This bet is a bit risky since both fighters are talented, and it could go either way. Still, if Dern can showcase her strength, she might just pull off a solid win. Remember, there's no guarantee she will, but it could be a fun pick! It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Gillian Robertson to Win (+190)

Odds available at PointsBet at time of publishing

Gillian Robertson is facing Mackenzie Dern in this fight, and I like Robertson to win. She has a solid grappling style and is great at taking the fight to the ground, which can give her an advantage. Dern is a strong striker, but if Robertson can get a hold of her and control the match, she has a good chance to pull off the upset. It won't be easy, but at those odds, it's worth a shot. Just remember, anything can happen in the octagon, so it's always a risk. It was priced at +190 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29 if it lands. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Mackenzie Dern: last five W-W-W-L-L, on a 3-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 292 days since the last fight
  • Gillian Robertson: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 5-fight win streak, 12% of career wins came by knockout, 152 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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