Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 26.5 Rebounds + Assists (-278)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Nuggets gear up to face the Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but we're leaning into the under on his combined rebounds and assists, set at 26.5. While Jokic is undoubtedly a triple-double threat, recent trends show he might fall short of this mark at home. Over his last five games at Ball Arena, he's averaged just 27 assists and rebounds combined, which is below our target. Facing the Spurs, he's averaged 12 rebounds and just under 9 assists in their last few encounters at home, indicating that he often finds his scoring rhythm rather than racking up assists against this defense. Plus, consider that he's hit this under in 16 of his last 20 home games. With an expected stat value around 19.27, the under feels like a solid play here. Let's embrace the narrative that Jokic may just distribute rather than dominate in this matchup.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Assists (-323)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but not for the reasons you might think. While the reigning MVP has dazzled us with his playmaking, recent trends suggest he may fall short of the 12.5 assists mark. Jokic's average over the last five games sits at 13.6, but at home, that number dips to 12.4. Against the Spurs, he's averaged just 10.6 assists in their last five meetings, and even lower at home with only 8.8. This matchup also brings a solid undercurrent, as Jokic has hit the under in all three of his last games. With the Spurs often playing tight defense, there's a good chance he won't need to facilitate as much, making the under a compelling play. Don't be surprised if Jokic finishes below his usual assist numbers in this one.

Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs) Under 1.5 Threes Made (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As Dylan Harper hits the hardwood against the Denver Nuggets, we should keep a close eye on his three-point shooting, specifically targeting the under on 1.5 made threes. While Harper has shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent matchups tell a different story. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 1.4 threes made, and when it comes to away games, that drops to 1.8-still not enough to inspire confidence against the Nuggets' stiff defense.Against Denver specifically, Harper has struggled, averaging a mere 0.5 threes made in their last five encounters. Even more telling is his recent away performance against them, where he hasn't hit a single three. With the odds favoring this under at around 69.9%, it feels like a smart move to bet against Harper lighting it up from beyond the arc. Given the context and the numbers, the under is a compelling play.

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