Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs : NA -3.5 Point Spread (+100)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to win this match by more than 3.5 points due to several key statistical advantages. First, they have a higher home overall score for the last five games, averaging 28.4 points compared to the away team's 24.4. The Chiefs also have a superior home overall L5 EPA (Expected Points Added) difference of 2.46, indicating that they are more likely to score on a given possession. Furthermore, in their last five home games, the Chiefs have averaged 33 points and have a positive point differential of 3.6. They also have a stronger home passing EPA of 6.69, suggesting they have been more efficient in passing plays. Their home overall L5 record is also even at 3-2, which is more promising than the away team's 1-4 record in their last five away games. Lastly, the model edge of 0.082 suggests that the betting market may be

Ryan Flournoy (DAL) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+188)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the data provided, betting on Ryan Flournoy to achieve over 14.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs might not be the most statistically sound decision. Flournoy's recent performance and trends do not suggest a strong likelihood of him surpassing this threshold. In his last five games overall, Flournoy has failed to register more than 14.5 receiving yards, indicated by an overall hit rate of 0/5. Similarly, in his last five games at home, he has only surpassed this mark once (home hit rate of 1/5). Furthermore, Flournoy is currently on a zero-game streak for hitting over 14.5 receiving yards both overall and at home. The model edge of 0.081, while positive, doesn't provide a significant statistical advantage. Therefore, the numbers suggest a lower likelihood of Flournoy exceeding 14.5 receiving yards in this game.

KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on KaVontae Turpin to finish with Under 16.5 reception yards in the Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs game is grounded in his recent performance statistics. Over his last five games, Turpin's average reception yards have been consistently below the 16.5 mark, suggesting a trend that might continue in this game. Moreover, the Chiefs' defense has been particularly effective in limiting opponents' receiving yards, adding another layer of challenge for Turpin. Additionally, it's important to consider the model edge of 0.078, which indicates a slight statistical advantage for the outcome of 'Under'. In summary, the combination of Turpin's recent below-par performance, the formidable Chiefs' defense and the model edge all point towards a bet on Under 16.5 reception yards.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data under consideration doesn't support a strong betting rationale for CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs. Lamb's recent performance has been underwhelming; he has failed to score a touchdown in his last 5 games overall and his last 5 home games. His overall touchdown scoring rate is less than 40% (23/59) and it's just over 40% for home games (13/30). Despite the slight model edge of 0.0767, the recent trends and hit rates do not lean heavily in favor of Lamb scoring a touchdown. Hence, it would be a risky bet to wager on Lamb scoring a touchdown in this game. It's advisable to consider these stats and trends before making a final decision.

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs : NA -3.5 Point Spread (-105)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Kansas City Chiefs have shown a strong performance in their last 5 games, with a notable edge in scoring and overall yardage. They have averaged 28.4 points per game, compared to their opponents' 26, and outpaced their opponents in total yards with 387 to 336.4. This indicates a more potent offensive performance. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) metrics are also promising. For instance, the Chiefs' overall pass EPA stands at 2.16, indicating efficiency in their passing game. They also demonstrate defensive strength, with a lower rush EPA against at 2.67, suggesting they are effective in limiting opponents' rushing gains. However, turnovers could be a concern as the Chiefs have a negative turnover difference of -0.8 in their last five games. This suggests they need to improve their ball security to maximize their advantage. Despite this, the Chiefs are favored to win by more than 3.5 points. Their stronger offensive and defensive

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs : Under 52.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data leans towards betting Under 52.5 for the NA vs NA game. The home team has been averaging 28.4 points in their last five games, while the away team has been scoring an average of 24.4 points. This equates to a combined average of 52.8 points, which is just above the set betting line, but crucially, the away team has been much stronger defensively. They have only been allowing an average of 15.4 points in their last five games, which suggests they could hold the home team to a lower score than their recent average. Additionally, the model edge is 0.048, further implying that the Under bet has a statistical edge. Lastly, the turnover rates for both teams indicate potential for defensive plays that could limit scoring. The home team has a negative turnover differential in their last five games, which could further limit their scoring potential.

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