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The latest Bet Better model pick for KaVontae Turpin is Under 16.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 58%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +5.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NFL

KaVontae Turpin

DAL

+5.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 16.5 -112 (1.89)
+5.3% Edge
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Dallas · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
58.3%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+5.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards58.3%—52.9%1.72+5.3%

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AI Analysis

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KaVontae Turpin (DAL) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Analyzing KaVontae Turpin's recent performance, we can see a trend that leans towards the 'Under 16.5' bet. In his last five games, Turpin's average receiving yards per game have been consistently low, not surpassing the 16.5 yard threshold. Furthermore, Turpin's hit rate, or the frequency at which he achieves more than 16.5 receiving yards, is also relatively low. This indicates a pattern of underperformance relative to this betting line. Additionally, the model edge, a predictive indicator of the outcome, is 0.053485286193606. This statistic may seem small, but in sports betting, even a slight edge can be significant and indicative of a likely outcome. The New York Giants also boast a strong defensive line that has been successful in limiting receiving yards of opposing team players, which could further affect Turpin's performance. Considering these factors, there's a strong statistical reasoning for betting on KaVont

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards15 lines trackedNo line posted
16.5typical line · receiving yds
line range15.5–17.5tips tracked15

KaVontae Turpin's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 15 times, typically around a 16.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

KaVontae Turpin (DAL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for KaVontae Turpin is Under 16.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.3% on this pick. Their next game is New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys at Dallas. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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