Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty Prediction & Picks (Brittney Griner Key Factor): High-Value Opportunity

As the Connecticut Sun host the New York Liberty at the Mohegan Sun Arena, expect a battle where both teams dig in defensively. The Sun have built their reputation on gritty defense, and with the Liberty also showcasing a more measured pace this season, we're likely to see a grind-it-out affair. The projected total of around 166.5 points from our model hints at a game where scoring opportunities are limited. Connecticut thrives in half-court sets, often stifling opponents with their physical play, while New York's offensive rhythm hasn't fully clicked, especially away from home. Given the intensity of the matchup and the stakes involved, it's hard to see either team running away with a high-scoring game. So, while the total sits at 189.5, it feels prudent to lean towards the under, as both squads focus on defense and execution over fireworks. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Brittney Griner Over 9.5 Points (-208)

Connecticut Sun play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 16 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Brittney Griner Over 9.5 Points. That is a player points bet. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.80 if it lands. It is on at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sabrina Ionescu Over 15.5 Points (-238)

Connecticut Sun play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 16 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sabrina Ionescu Over 15.5 Points. That is a player points bet. It was priced at -238 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.20 if it lands. It is on at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 Assists (-156)

Connecticut Sun play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 16 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 Assists. That is a player assists bet. It was priced at -156 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.40 if it lands. It is on at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Connecticut Sun v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.