Jake Fraley (SEA) Under 1.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the White Sox host the Rays on Thursday, all eyes will be on Jake Fraley and his ability to swipe bases. However, the stats point toward a more cautious night for him. While Fraley has speed, he’s had a tough time against the White Sox’s arms, particularly facing pitchers adept at holding runners close. The White Sox, boasting a solid defense, have limited stolen bases significantly this season, allowing just a handful per game. In fact, their catchers have been particularly effective at gunning down would-be base-stealers. With Fraley likely to find himself in tight situations, it’s hard to see him successfully stealing multiple bases against this formidable defense. Considering his recent performances and the White Sox's stingy approach in this department, betting on him to go under 1.5 stolen bases feels like a smart play. With a high implied probability backing this choice, it’s one that makes sense in this matchup.

Richie Palacios (STL) Under 1.5 Walks (-323)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the White Sox prepare to host the Rays, all eyes will be on Richie Palacios and his plate discipline. Despite the allure of his potential, Palacios has struggled to draw walks lately, which aligns with his current trend of being overly aggressive at the plate. The Rays’ pitching staff, particularly their crafty starters, has a knack for keeping hitters off balance, boasting a walk rate that ranks among the league's best. With Tampa Bay's ability to limit free passes, it’s no surprise that models predict Palacios will likely finish under 1.5 walks tonight. The White Sox have also been swinging for the fences rather than working counts, further supporting the idea that Palacios won’t take many pitches. Given the matchup dynamics and his recent tendencies, betting the under here feels like a smart play. Expect a focused at-bat approach from Palacios that keeps his walk count low.

Richie Palacios (STL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-588)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the White Sox take on the Rays, all eyes will be on Richie Palacios, but betting on him to steal a base feels risky. Tampa's pitching has been stellar lately, with a strikeout rate among the league's best, which limits opportunities for base runners. Palacios, while a speedy player, hasn't shown a strong propensity for theft this season—he averages barely a steal per 20 games. Moreover, with the Rays' disciplined approach to controlling the running game, they’re not just about power; they’re about keeping the game tight. The odds are heavily stacked against Palacios, as the statistical model gives him just a 5% chance of swiping a bag. Given these insights and the current dynamics of both teams, backing the under on Palacios' stolen bases feels like the smart play in this matchup.

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