DJ Moore (CHI) Over 4.5 Player rush yds alternate (+154)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

This bet centers on DJ Moore surpassing 4.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. Moore's recent performance, with an average rushing yard well above the 4.5 mark, suggests that he is capable of achieving this feat. His hit rate and streaks further bolster the argument, showing consistent performance over multiple games. Furthermore, the model edge of roughly 0.099 indicates a statistical advantage in favor of this bet. It's also worth noting that the Packers' defense has historically struggled against the run, which could provide additional opportunities for Moore. Given these factors, the Over bet for DJ Moore in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market is statistically justified.

Cole Kmet (CHI) Over 24.5 Player reception yds alternate (+215)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The key rationale for placing a bet on Cole Kmet for Over 24.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is primarily based on his strong performance when playing against the Green Bay Packers at home. Kmet has consistently hit the over in all three of his last home games against the Packers, showing he can perform well against this specific opposition on home turf. Additionally, looking at a broader history of games against the Packers, Kmet has hit his mark 4 out of 5 times and 4 out of 6 times in the last 10 and 20 matchups respectively. This shows a consistent trend of Kmet achieving more than 24.5 reception yards against the Packers. Despite a current overall and home hit streak of 0, his specific performance against the Packers at home suggests a promising bet for the Over 24.5 outcome.

Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 199.5 Player pass yds alternate (-133)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

While the model edge for this bet is just 8.57%, Caleb Williams' stats indicate a challenging bet. Looking at his recent performances, Williams has not had success surpassing 199.5 passing yards, with an overall hit rate of 0 in his last 3, 5, and 10 games. His home hit rate showcases the same lack of success. In his last 20 games overall and at home, he's only surpassed this yardage roughly a quarter of the time (8/37 overall and 5/19 at home). However, when playing against the Green Bay Packers, particularly at home, Williams' performance significantly improves. He has a 50% hit rate versus the Packers and has always surpassed 199.5 passing yards when playing them at home. Despite the overall trend, this specific matchup may favor Williams. But given the recent and overall statistics, this bet remains quite risky.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : Under 44.5 Total Points (-105)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The under 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game is backed by several key statistical indicators from both teams' recent performances. Firstly, the home team's overall last five games (L5) average score is 25.6 against 21.6, while the away team's overall L5 score is lower at 19.4 against 26.8. This suggests a combined average total score of around 43 points, which falls under the 44.5 line. The away team's poor overall L5 point differential of -7.4 and Effective Points Added (EPA) differential of -8.94 further suggest they struggle to score high. Additionally, the home team's home-away (HA) L5 average score is 24.8 against 17.2, again falling under the 44.5 line when combined with the away team's HA L5 score of 20.6 against 23.2. The model also gives

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : Under 44.5 Total Points (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Under 44.5 for this NA vs. NA game seems statistically sound, particularly considering the performance data provided. The home team's last five games have seen an average score of 25.6, while the away team has only managed an average of 19.4. This gives a combined average score of 45, which is just above the 44.5 mark, suggesting a close call. However, the away team's scoring has been on the decline, with an EPA (Expected Points Added) difference of -8.94, indicating their offensive performance has been below expectation. Moreover, the home team's defensive record, with a lower score against average (21.6) and a positive EPA against, suggests they may limit the away team's scoring. Finally, the away team's negative turnover difference indicates they have been giving up possession more often than gaining it, potentially reducing their scoring opportunities. Therefore, the data supports a bet on the Under.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : NA Moneyline (+102)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on the Chicago Bears in the head-to-head (h2h) market is backed by several key statistics. Firstly, the Bears have a more robust home record, with recent performance data showing 4 wins out of the last 5 games. This contrasts the away team's weaker record of 2 wins out of 5. The model's edge of 0.027 indicates a slight advantage for the Bears. In terms of scoring, the Bears have an average of 25.6 points in their last 5 games, compared to the away team's average of 19.4 points. Their home score against average of 17.2 also surpasses the away team's 23.2. Additionally, the Bears have a higher expected points added (EPA) for, both overall and when at home, indicating more efficient scoring. Lastly, the Bears have a positive turnover differential, signifying better ball control. These factors collectively suggest a statistical edge for the Bears,

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