Dawson Knox (BUF) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+205)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Dawson Knox to go over 14.5 receiving yards against the New Orleans Saints might seem like a risky proposition given his recent performance. He has failed to hit this mark in his last three games both overall and at home, and his hit rates over the last 5, 10, and 20 games are unimpressive. His overall hit rate of 24/48 is not reassuring either, showing a lack of consistency. However, it's worth noting that the model edge indicates a small advantage to this bet. This model edge may take into account factors like the opponent's defensive weaknesses, Knox's role in the Bills' offensive game plan, or other variables. While recent performance is not encouraging, betting markets are forward-looking, and the model edge suggests the odds provided may undervalue Knox's chances of hitting over 14.5 receiving yards. This bet could offer value to risk-tolerant bettors banking on a performance turnaround for Knox.

Dawson Knox (BUF) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+134)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Dawson Knox to exceed 9.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between the Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints could be considered a risky bet, given his recent performance. Knox's hit rate, or the rate at which he has exceeded this reception yards total, has been poor in recent games. Over his last 5 games, he has not exceeded this total at all, and his hit rate over his last 10 games is just 30%. His home hit rate is also low, with only 1 success in his last 5 home games and 3 successes in his last 10. His current hit streak is also at zero, indicating that he has not recently been exceeding this total. However, his overall hit rate is 64.6%, and his home hit rate is 57.7%, suggesting that historically, he has been capable of surpassing this total. Therefore, while recent trends don't favor Knox, his overall performance suggests he could hit over

Josh Allen (BUF) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Josh Allen for under 17.5 rushing yards in the Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints game is statistically sound, given his recent performances. Allen's overall hit rate is low in recent games: his hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10 respectively. This implies that he has not been able to surpass the 17.5 rushing yards mark in most of his recent games. His home hit rate is slightly better but still not promising, standing at 0/3, 1/5, and 3/10 for the last 3, 5, and 10 home games respectively. Furthermore, his current hit streak, both overall and at home, is zero. This means he hasn't surpassed the 17.5 rushing yards mark in his most recent games. Combined with a model edge of 0.087, this data suggests that betting on Allen

James Cook (BUF) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+198)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on James Cook to record over 14.5 reception yards in the game between the Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints is not strongly supported by recent data. Looking at Cook's performance, his overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, and 10 games is very low, with 0/3, 0/5, and 2/10 respectively, meaning he has rarely surpassed this yardage benchmark recently. Cook's home hit rate doesn't show any significant difference either. Overall, Cook has surpassed 14.5 reception yards in just 23 out of 59 games, and only 10 times in 33 home games. His current hit streak is also at zero, indicating he hasn't been performing well lately. While the model gives a slight edge of about 8.4%, it's important to consider the statistical context in which this edge exists, which suggests a high level of risk in this bet.

Dawson Knox (BUF) Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The data for Dawson Knox does not support a strong rationale for betting on him to go over 5.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the New Orleans Saints. Knox's recent performance indicates a downturn in productivity in both overall and home games. In his last five games, he has not hit the over in any of them. Moreover, his hit rate at home in the last three games is 0/3. Even looking at longer-term trends, his overall hit rate in the last 20 games is less than 50% (9/20), and his home hit rate is exactly 50% (10/20). The current hit streaks also show that he has not been successful recently. Despite a decent overall hit rate of 32/48, his current form doesn't inspire confidence for this bet. Therefore, this bet seems risky given the recent and historical stats.

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints : Over 56.5 Total Points (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Over 56.5 points in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by the recent scoring trends of both teams. The home team has been particularly high-scoring, averaging 31.6 points in their last five games while conceding an average of 25.6 points. This provides a combined average of 57.2 points, which is above the total set for this game. Additionally, their home performance is even stronger, scoring an average of 34 points and conceding 21.4 points, for a combined average of 55.4 points. Meanwhile, the away team's recent struggles on defense also support this bet. They have been conceding an average of 28.4 points in their last five games and 27.8 points in their last five away games. Their offensive performance has been poor, but the home team's strong offense and weak defense could lead to a high-scoring game overall. Considering the model's edge

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